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King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit

8.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.6%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.6%Based on 8.4M games
0%47.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.0%3.1%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Bc5
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
Analyzen=8.4M
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 47.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 47.6%), based on 8.4M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +0.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Bxf2+ · Black wins: 50.7% · n=3.2M

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.7% win rate (1,183,708 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.3% win rate (1,323,246 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (1,659,549 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.6% win rate (1,774,081 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (1,474,993 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (727,571 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.7% win rate (198,462 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.3% win rate (34,155 games)
  • 2500+: 44.1% win rate (1,597 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.9% win rate (60,096 games)
  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (2,331,447 games)
  • Blitz: 45.8% win rate (4,187,395 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (1,740,775 games)
  • Classical: 39.6% win rate (57,649 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (3,720 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (237,244 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (518,007 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (420,934 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (3,803 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (10,161 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (330,021 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (650,000 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (322,573 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (10,491 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (17,636 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (426,028 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (875,267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (326,260 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (14,358 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (16,745 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (473,478 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (937,880 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (328,672 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (17,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (7,811 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (452,755 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (777,703 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (227,582 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (9,142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (3,234 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (271,516 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (352,385 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (98,128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (2,308 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.0% expected score (729 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (111,794 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (69,870 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (15,843 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 24.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (27,133 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (6,172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (775 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (111 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense
50.7%
Continuations (1)
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit
47.3%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (34K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.1%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 728K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 198K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate for white (60K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white (2.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.8%) win rate for white (4.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.0%-56.7%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.