King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit

8.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

2...Bc5

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.6%

40%55%

Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 8.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

46.0%3.1%50.9%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context: 8.4M
Best context: 56.4% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context: 35.0% at 2000-2199 UltraBullet
Average game length: 30 moves
Games that end decisively: 96.9%
Draws: 3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +0.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Bxf2+ · Black wins: 50.7% · 3.2M games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 40.8% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (3,720 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (237,244 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (518,007 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (420,934 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (3,803 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (10,161 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (330,021 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (650,000 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (322,573 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (10,491 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (17,636 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (426,028 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (875,267 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (326,260 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (14,358 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (16,745 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (473,478 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (937,880 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (328,672 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (17,306 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (7,811 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (452,755 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (777,703 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (227,582 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (9,142 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (3,234 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (271,516 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (352,385 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (98,128 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (2,308 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.0% expected score (729 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (111,794 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (69,870 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (15,843 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (226 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 24.8% expected score (60 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (27,133 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (6,172 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (775 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (1,478 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (111 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent

King's Pawn Game

47.9%

Variations (5)

King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation

48.7%

King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack

51.8%

King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense

50.0%

King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack

50.5%

King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense

50.7%

Continuations (1)

King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit

47.3%

Analyze King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 47.6% — from 8.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 8.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 8.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 48.1% (1.8M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (4.2M games) against 46.0% in Rapid (1.7M games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 728K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 198K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.9%, draws 1.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 60K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 4.2M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 58K Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.0% of its games and loses 50.9%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.