King's Pawn Game
34 variations · 67M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
51.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 67M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 67M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #26 of 56
- Games in this context
- 67M
- Best context
- 57.4% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Worst context
- 47.1% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Variations measured
- 34
- Average game length
- 32 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.8% at 0-999, 53.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (22,727 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,997,865 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,178,284 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (3,730,179 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (33,291 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (50,241 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (2,543,956 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (6,512,586 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (3,263,240 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (94,509 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (79,232 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (3,193,740 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (7,039,212 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (3,084,029 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (155,042 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (90,255 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,370,070 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (6,494,448 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,547,425 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (178,798 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (44,475 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (2,975,172 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (4,613,583 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,634,429 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (80,007 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (17,863 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,114,902 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,233,289 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (623,182 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (17,451 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (4,418 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,073,678 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (589,868 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (114,379 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (2,067 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (1,234 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (405,983 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (106,064 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (10,771 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (176 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (175 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (59,433 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (10,144 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (944 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (191 games)
34 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game family scores 51.9% for White — we are 90% confident it is 51.9% — from 67M Lichess games across 34 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 67M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Game win rate?
Across the King's Pawn Game's 34 variations, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 67M rated games from Lichess.
How many King's Pawn Game variations are there?
34 King's Pawn Game variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Game perform best?
The King's Pawn Game family performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 52.5% (12M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the King's Pawn Game better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Pawn Game scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (34M games) against 52.1% in Rapid (15M games).
How sharp is the King's Pawn Game?
King's Pawn Game games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the King's Pawn Game a good opening family?
The King's Pawn Game family is about level overall. Across its games, White wins 50.0% and loses 46.2%. Results differ between its 34 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.