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Analyzer

King's Pawn Game

34 variations · 67M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

King's Pawn Game is balanced for White at 51.9% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 51.9%Aggregated from 34 variations
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 51.9%
ContextOverall · n=67M
Outcome Distribution
50.0%3.8%46.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...e5
King's Pawn Game
Variations34
Games (Context)67M
Avg Length32 moves
Draw Rate3.8%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1King's Pawn Game: Damiano Defense, Damiano GambitTop Pick
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 f6 3.Nxe5 fxe5 4.Qh5+ g6 5.Qxe5+ Qe7 6.Qxh8
Min adv +34.8% · n=77K
67.7%
#2King's Pawn Game: La Bourdonnais Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Qf6 3.Bc4 Qg6 4.O-O
Min adv +10.1% · n=14K
55.7%
#3King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Qh5
Min adv +7.6% · n=9.1M
53.9%
#4King's Pawn Game: Tayler Opening, Inverted Hanham
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Be2 Nf6 4.d3 d5 5.Nbd2
Min adv +5.7% · n=48K
53.3%
#5King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Qf3
Min adv +4.7% · n=6.0M
52.4%
#6King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack
1.e4 e5 2.c3
Min adv +3.3% · n=3.2M
51.7%
#7King's Pawn Game: Tayler Opening
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Be2
Min adv +1.6% · n=876K
50.9%
#8King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
1.e4 e5 2.d3
Min adv +1.3% · n=15M
50.7%
#9King's Pawn Game: Mengarini's Opening
1.e4 e5 2.a3
Min adv +0.6% · n=517K
50.5%
#10King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening
1.e4 e5 2.Ne2
Min adv 0.0% · n=532K
50.1%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the King's Pawn Game expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the King's Pawn Game family has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 51.9%), aggregated from 34 variations and 67M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.1% win rate (11,962,346 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.6% win rate (12,464,532 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.5% win rate (13,551,255 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (12,680,996 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (9,347,666 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.8% win rate (5,006,687 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (1,784,410 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.7% win rate (524,228 games)
  • 2500+: 44.5% win rate (70,887 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.3% win rate (310,620 games)
  • Bullet: 50.4% win rate (17,734,799 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (33,777,478 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (15,008,578 games)
  • Classical: 49.3% win rate (561,532 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (22,727 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,997,865 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,178,284 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (3,730,179 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (33,291 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (50,241 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (2,543,956 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (6,512,586 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (3,263,240 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (94,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (79,232 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (3,193,740 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (7,039,212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (3,084,029 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (155,042 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (90,255 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,370,070 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (6,494,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,547,425 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (178,798 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (44,475 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (2,975,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (4,613,583 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,634,429 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (80,007 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (17,863 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,114,902 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,233,289 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (623,182 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (17,451 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (4,418 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,073,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (589,868 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (114,379 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (2,067 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (1,234 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (405,983 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (106,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (10,771 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (176 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (175 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (59,433 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (10,144 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (944 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (191 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (34)

1
King's Pawn Game: Damiano Defense, Damiano Gambit77K games
67.7%
2
King's Pawn Game: Damiano Defense3.2M games
57.7%
3
King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit1.1M games
55.6%
King's Pawn Game: La Bourdonnais Gambit14K games
55.7%
King's Pawn Game: Gunderam Defense, Gunderam Gambit2.7K games
56.1%
King's Pawn Game: Gunderam Gambit870K games
54.5%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack9.1M games
53.9%
King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense3.4M games
53.1%
King's Pawn Game: Tayler Opening, Inverted Hanham48K games
53.3%
King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit8.8K games
53.5%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit8.4M games
52.5%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack6.0M games
52.4%
King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, Radisch Gambit36K games
52.4%
King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack3.2M games
51.7%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense6.2M games
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Damiano Defense, Damiano Gambit, Chigorin Gambit1.9K games
53.0%
King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit23K games
51.5%
King's Pawn Game: Tayler Opening876K games
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation15M games
50.7%
King's Pawn Game: Mengarini's Opening517K games
50.5%
King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed250K games
50.1%
King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening532K games
50.1%
King's Pawn Game3.2M games
49.9%
King's Pawn Game: Tayler Opening, Basman Gambit1.6K games
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Mar��czy Defense431 games
53.2%
King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack, Lasa Gambit55K games
49.4%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit117K games
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening354K games
48.5%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack, Kiddie Countergambit1.8M games
48.2%
King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit30K games
47.8%
King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening447K games
47.3%
King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening2.0M games
46.0%
King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit86K games
44.3%
King's Pawn Game: Pachman Wing Gambit16K games
42.9%
Analyze King's Pawn Game PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game win rate?

The King's Pawn Game family has a 50.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.0%) win rate for white, aggregated from 34 variations and 67M rated games from Lichess.

How many King's Pawn Game variations are there?

This analysis covers 34 King's Pawn Game variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game perform best?

The King's Pawn Game family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (12M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the King's Pawn Game better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.4%) outperforms Classical (49.3%) by 1.1% across all King's Pawn Game variations.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game?

King's Pawn Game games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the King's Pawn Game a good opening family?

The King's Pawn Game family is statistically balanced overall with a 50.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.0%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 34 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.