Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening

447K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
2.Bd3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.3%

40%55%
Floor47.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.4%.

Measured over 447K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 447K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
447K
Best context
52.1% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
30.8% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.9% at 0-999, 50.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (322 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (19,931 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (54,258 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (42,082 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (495 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (18,564 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (45,112 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (24,000 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (1,221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (17,010 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (41,324 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (19,220 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (1,339 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (655 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (24,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (32,111 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (14,354 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (1,304 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (305 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (19,630 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (26,483 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (5,233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (218 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (11,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (8,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (3,903 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (7,287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,070 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (161 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,126 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (486 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (274 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening scores 47.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.2% and 47.4% — from 447K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
447K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening, White wins 45.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 447K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.4% (25K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (210K games) against 44.6% in Rapid (109K games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 42.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 89K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 44.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 6.5%, draws 87.8% and loses 5.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 51 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 44.4%, draws 1.2% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 121K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 45.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 210K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 41.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 109K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 35.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 59.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.8%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 45.2% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.