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Analyzer

King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening

447K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.4%Based on 447K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
45.2%4.1%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.Bd3
King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening
Analyzen=447K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 47.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 47.4%), based on 447K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 42% → 7%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.1% win rate (117,246 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (89,392 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.8% win rate (79,703 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (72,967 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.1% win rate (51,869 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.4% win rate (24,650 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (8,343 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (1,249 games)
  • 2500+: 6.5% win rate (1,888 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.4% win rate (2,655 games)
  • Bullet: 47.3% win rate (121,000 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (209,577 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (109,215 games)
  • Classical: 35.1% win rate (4,860 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (322 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (19,931 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (54,258 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (42,082 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (495 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (18,564 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (45,112 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (24,000 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (1,221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (17,010 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (41,324 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (19,220 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (1,339 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (655 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (24,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (32,111 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (14,354 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (1,304 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (305 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (19,630 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (26,483 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (5,233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (218 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (11,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (8,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (3,903 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (7,287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,070 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (161 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,126 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (486 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (274 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening
48.3%
King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit
49.5%
King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit
53.4%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit
47.3%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate?

The King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 447K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (25K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.3%) outperforms Classical (35.1%) by 12.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 42.1% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.3%) win rate for white, based on 117K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 89K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 44.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 6.5% (90% CI: 5.6%-7.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 51 moves with a 87.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.8%-46.0%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white (121K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.1%) win rate for white (210K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 41.9% (90% CI: 41.6%-42.1%) win rate for white (109K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening has a 35.1% (90% CI: 34.0%-36.3%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Tortoise Opening is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.