King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening
354K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.7%.
Measured over 354K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 354K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 354K
- Best context
- 53.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 41.1% at 1200-1399 Classical
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.8% at 0-999, 56.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (6,572 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (25,990 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (16,768 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (242 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (7,933 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (31,116 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (18,043 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (708 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (8,084 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (34,030 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (22,130 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (1,100 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (51 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (9,798 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (33,746 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (22,193 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (1,776 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (6,827 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (33,077 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (18,998 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (1,198 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (4,853 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (20,467 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (9,627 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (323 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,340 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,150 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (2,399 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (120 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (2,447 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (1,692 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (277 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (405 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (40 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening scores 48.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.4% and 48.7% — from 354K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 354K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate?
Playing the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening, White wins 46.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 354K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening perform best?
The King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (4.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.2% in Blitz (186K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (110K games).
How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening?
The King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 42.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 451 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 48.0%, draws 0.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 185 Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 186K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 44.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 110K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 41.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening a good opening?
The King's Pawn Game: Dresden Opening is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.4% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.