What is the Dresden Opening expected score for Black?
Snapshot
Overall, the Dresden Opening family has a 74.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 72.1% and 77.4%), aggregated from 1 variations and 732 Lichess games.
Dresden Opening
1 variations · 732 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Dresden Opening gives Black a 74.7% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 44.1%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
You play
Play This
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 72.1% – 77.4%Aggregated from 1 variations
0%74.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 72.1% – 77.4%
ContextOverall · n=732
Outcome Distribution
73.1%3.2%23.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Dresden Opening
Variations1
Games (Context)732
Avg Length26 moves
Draw Rate3.2%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall · limited data
No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
Black Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 71% → 14%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 71.4% win rate (355 games)
- 1000-1199: 70.6% win rate (121 games)
- 1200-1399: 83.5% win rate (65 games)
- 1400-1599: 79.1% win rate (142 games)
- 1600-1799: 67.4% win rate (20 games)
- 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (14 games)
- 2000-2199: 47.8% win rate (10 games)
- 2200-2499: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
- 2500+: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
Black Win% by Time Control
Best in Classical (82%), worst in UltraBullet (53%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
- Bullet: 73.6% win rate (169 games)
- Blitz: 75.5% win rate (231 games)
- Rapid: 69.8% win rate (293 games)
- Classical: 82.1% win rate (32 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · Black expected scores
Black% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.6% expected score (78 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 76.9% expected score (110 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 74.2% expected score (162 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 75.6% expected score (22 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 69.6% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 71.1% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 92.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 85.9% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 74.5% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 85.4% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 88.9% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 69.1% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 86.6% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 91.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (1)
Analyze Dresden Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dresden Opening win rate?
The Dresden Opening family has a 23.7% (90% CI: 21.1%-26.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 1 variations and 732 rated games from Lichess.
How many Dresden Opening variations are there?
This analysis covers 1 Dresden Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Dresden Opening perform best?
The Dresden Opening family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 27.3% win rate for white (121 games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Dresden Opening better in blitz or rapid?
Rapid (25.3%) outperforms Blitz (20.9%) by 4.4% across all Dresden Opening variations.
How sharp is the Dresden Opening?
Dresden Opening games are 96.8% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 26 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Dresden Opening a good opening family?
The Dresden Opening family is slightly favors black overall with a 23.7% (90% CI: 21.1%-26.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 1 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.