Dresden Opening: The Goblin
732 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
25.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 28.0%.
Measured over 732 games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 732 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 732
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 26 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.8%
- Draws
- 3.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.0% at 0-999, 78.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (78 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 23.1% expected score (110 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 25.8% expected score (162 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 24.5% expected score (22 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.4% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 7.1% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 14.2% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 25.6% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 14.6% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 11.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.9% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 13.4% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 8.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 25.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 22.7% and 28.0% — from 732 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 732+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin win rate?
The Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 25.3% (range, 90% confident: 22.7% – 28.0%) for White, based on 732 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dresden Opening: The Goblin perform best?
The Dresden Opening: The Goblin performs best at 0-999, where it scores 26.5% for White (355 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin better in blitz or rapid?
For White, Rapid (27.8%) outperforms Blitz (22.7%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin?
The Dresden Opening: The Goblin has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.
What is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 26.5% (range, 90% confident: 22.7% – 30.4%) for White, based on 355 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
What is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 28.4% (range, 90% confident: 21.9% – 35.3%) for White, based on 121 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
What is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 19.4% (range, 90% confident: 14.2% – 25.0%) for White, based on 142 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 26.0% (range, 90% confident: 20.6% – 31.6%) for White (169 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.
What is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 22.7% (range, 90% confident: 18.3% – 27.4%) for White (231 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
What is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Dresden Opening: The Goblin scores 27.8% (range, 90% confident: 23.6% – 32.2%) for White (293 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
Is the Dresden Opening: The Goblin a good opening?
The Dresden Opening: The Goblin is hard work for White — it favours Black with a 23.7% (range, 90% confident: 21.1% – 26.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.