King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit
23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 23K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 23K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 23K
- Best context
- 54.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.6% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.9% at 0-999, 39.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (931 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,462 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,393 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (847 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,898 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (981 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (35 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (26 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (860 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,602 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (846 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 69.4% expected score (50 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,104 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (1,356 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (550 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,104 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,186 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (325 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (1,753 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (744 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (135 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,291 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (345 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (552 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (41 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 49.1% — from 23K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 23K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate?
Playing the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 23K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit perform best?
The King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (589 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (9.6K games) against 44.6% in Rapid (4.3K games).
How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit?
The King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 52.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 589 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 161 Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.5%, draws 7.7% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 187 Lichess games.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit a good opening?
The King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.5% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.