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Analyzer

King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit

23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 49.1%Based on 23K games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%4.0%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...d5
King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit
Analyzen=23K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 49.1%), based on 23K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +9.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.1% win rate (4,816 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (3,780 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.2% win rate (3,388 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (3,109 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (2,670 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.8% win rate (2,651 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (1,681 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.9% win rate (589 games)
  • 2500+: 47.1% win rate (42 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.2% win rate (161 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (8,483 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (9,625 games)
  • Rapid: 41.8% win rate (4,270 games)
  • Classical: 39.5% win rate (187 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (931 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,462 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,393 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (847 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,898 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (981 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (860 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,602 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (846 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 69.4% expected score (50 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (1,356 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (550 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (325 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (1,753 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (744 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,291 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (345 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (552 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate?

The King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (3.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.2%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit?

The King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 40.8%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 589 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 38.9%-51.7%) win rate for white (161 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.2%) win rate for white (8.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.8%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.9%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-58.7%) win rate for white (187 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.