Modern Defense
35 variations · 48M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 48M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 48M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #18 of 62
- Games in this context
- 48M
- Best context
- 63.2% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 38.0% at 2500+ Rapid
- Variations measured
- 35
- Average game length
- 35 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.1% at 0-999, 43.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (3,877 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (442,120 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (679,147 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (237,404 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (2,186 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (13,720 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,044,928 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,379,336 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (378,638 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (7,201 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (39,694 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (2,171,587 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (2,597,166 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (649,700 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (17,086 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (75,324 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (3,433,331 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,045,522 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (921,307 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (36,069 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (77,489 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (4,417,726 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (4,943,189 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,050,705 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (37,961 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (47,442 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,486,699 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (4,202,908 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (769,147 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (22,457 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (18,551 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (3,370,899 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,134,754 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (281,610 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (5,265 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (8,391 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (2,394,839 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (847,199 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (57,575 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (886 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (1,827 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (642,315 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (82,605 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (2,070 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (258 games)
35 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense family scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.2% — from 48M Lichess games across 35 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 48M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense win rate?
Across the Modern Defense's 35 variations, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 48M rated games from Lichess.
How many Modern Defense variations are there?
35 Modern Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Modern Defense perform best?
The Modern Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (1.4M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (21M games) against 48.5% in Rapid (4.3M games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense?
Modern Defense games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Modern Defense a good opening family?
The Modern Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 47.3% and loses 49.0%. Results differ between its 35 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.