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Analyzer

Modern Defense

35 variations · 48M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Modern Defense is balanced for Black at 49.2% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.2%Aggregated from 35 variations
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.2%
ContextOverall · n=48M
Outcome Distribution
47.3%3.7%49.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d6
Modern Defense
Variations35
Games (Context)48M
Avg Length35 moves
Draw Rate3.7%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

#1Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian GambitTop Pick
1.e4 g6 2.d4 Nf6 3.e5 Nh5 4.Be2 d6
Min adv +15.0% · n=9.4K
58.3%
#2Modern Defense: Bishop Attack, Monkey's Bum
1.e4 g6 2.Bc4 Bg7 3.Qf3 e6 4.d4 Bxd4
Min adv +12.1% · n=7.7K
57.0%
#3Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation
1.Nf3 c5 2.c4 g6 3.d4 Bg7 4.e4 Qb6
Min adv +9.1% · n=2.0K
56.4%
#4Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation
1.Nf3 c5 2.c4 g6 3.d4 Bg7 4.e4 Qa5+
Min adv +8.2% · n=1.7K
56.1%
#5Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation
1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 g6 3.d4 Bg7 4.Nc3 Qa5
Min adv +6.7% · n=1.6K
55.4%
#6Modern Defense: Kotov Variation
1.d4 g6 2.c4 Bg7 3.Nc3 d6 4.e4 Nc6
Min adv +3.7% · n=380K
52.0%
#7Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
1.d4 g6 2.c4 Bg7 3.Nc3 c5 4.d5 Bxc3+ 5.bxc3 f5
Min adv +3.7% · n=46K
52.3%
#8Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation
1.e4 g6 2.d4 Bg7 3.c4 d5 4.exd5 c6 5.dxc6 Bxd4
Min adv +2.7% · n=117
58.9%
#9Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl
1.e4 g6 2.d4 Bg7 3.Nc3 c5
Min adv +2.5% · n=146K
51.5%
#10Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
1.e4 g6 2.d4 Bg7 3.Nc3 d6 4.Nf3 c6 5.Bg5 Qb6 6.Qd2 Qxb2
Min adv -0.3% · n=644
53.1%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Modern Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

Overall, the Modern Defense family has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 49.2%), aggregated from 35 variations and 48M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.0% win rate (1,364,734 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.8% win rate (2,823,823 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.5% win rate (5,475,233 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.2% win rate (8,511,553 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (10,527,070 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (9,528,653 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.3% win rate (5,811,079 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.5% win rate (3,308,890 games)
  • 2500+: 43.3% win rate (729,075 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.7% win rate (286,315 games)
  • Bullet: 48.1% win rate (22,404,444 games)
  • Blitz: 46.7% win rate (20,911,826 games)
  • Rapid: 46.1% win rate (4,348,156 games)
  • Classical: 45.6% win rate (129,369 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (3,877 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (442,120 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (679,147 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (237,404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (2,186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (13,720 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,044,928 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,379,336 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (378,638 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (7,201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (39,694 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (2,171,587 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (2,597,166 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (649,700 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (17,086 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (75,324 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (3,433,331 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,045,522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (921,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (36,069 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (77,489 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (4,417,726 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (4,943,189 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,050,705 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (37,961 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (47,442 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,486,699 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (4,202,908 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (769,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (22,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (18,551 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (3,370,899 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,134,754 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (281,610 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (5,265 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (8,391 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (2,394,839 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (847,199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (57,575 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (886 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (1,827 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (642,315 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (82,605 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (2,070 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (258 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (35)

1
Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit9.4K games
58.3%
2
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack, Monkey's Bum7.7K games
57.0%
3
Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation2.0K games
56.4%
Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation1.7K games
56.1%
Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation1.6K games
55.4%
Modern Defense: Kotov Variation380K games
52.0%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation46K games
52.3%
Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation117 games
58.9%
Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl146K games
51.5%
Modern Defense: Wind Gambit75K games
51.1%
Modern Defense: Geller's System1.1M games
50.8%
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit644 games
53.1%
Modern Defense: Gurgenidze Defense16K games
50.2%
Modern Defense35M games
49.5%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack1.4M games
49.3%
Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation31K games
49.6%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack558K games
49.1%
Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit120K games
49.2%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System719K games
49.0%
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation546K games
49.0%
Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted2.3K games
50.3%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack, Bücker Gambit409 games
52.7%
Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense351K games
48.5%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch28K games
48.7%
Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense27K games
48.6%
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation2.0M games
48.1%
Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit7.6K games
48.9%
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf31.1M games
48.1%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense1.9M games
46.7%
Modern Defense: Pseudo-Austrian Attack398K games
46.6%
Modern Defense: Standard Line1.7M games
46.3%
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3335K games
46.0%
Modern Defense: Westermann Gambit39K games
46.1%
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern902 games
45.5%
Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit48K games
42.1%
Analyze Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense win rate?

The Modern Defense family has a 49.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.0%) win rate for white, aggregated from 35 variations and 48M rated games from Lichess.

How many Modern Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 35 Modern Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Modern Defense perform best?

The Modern Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (729K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (49.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.4%) by 1.8% across all Modern Defense variations.

How sharp is the Modern Defense?

Modern Defense games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Modern Defense a good opening family?

The Modern Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 49.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.0%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 35 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.