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Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation

546K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.0%

45%55%
Floor48.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.

Measured over 546K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 546K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
546K
Best context
53.0% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
37.5% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.3% at 0-999, 39.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (2,622 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,911 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (505 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (6,518 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,764 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (12,319 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (17,978 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (4,351 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.7% expected score (219 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (22,633 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (37,109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (8,578 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (39,694 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (56,806 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (14,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (422 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (55,670 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (55,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (11,370 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (365 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (52,684 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (32,030 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (4,774 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.6% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (63,346 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (15,787 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (830 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 34.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (17,146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Continuations (1)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
45.9%
Analyze Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation scores 49.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.8% and 49.1% — from 546K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
546K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 546K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.6% in Blitz (225K games) against 48.0% in Rapid (46K games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 90K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 271K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 225K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.0% of its games and loses 49.1%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.