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Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation

546K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.1%Based on 546K games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.0%3.9%49.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...d6
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation
Analyzen=546K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 49.1%), based on 546K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.8% win rate (5,046 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (13,702 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (34,777 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (68,926 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.0% win rate (111,658 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (123,234 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (89,770 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.3% win rate (80,093 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (19,071 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.7% win rate (1,601 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (271,491 games)
  • Blitz: 46.4% win rate (225,411 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (46,318 games)
  • Classical: 45.0% win rate (1,456 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (2,622 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,911 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (505 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (6,518 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,764 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (12,319 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (17,978 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (4,351 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.7% expected score (219 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (22,633 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (37,109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (8,578 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (39,694 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (56,806 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (14,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (422 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (55,670 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (55,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (11,370 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (365 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (52,684 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (32,030 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (4,774 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.6% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (63,346 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (15,787 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (830 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 34.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (17,146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Continuations (1)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
45.9%
Analyze Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 546K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (49.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.3%) by -0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 90K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.4%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.2%) win rate for white (271K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.3%) win rate for white (225K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.8%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.6%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.