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Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.7%

45%55%
Floor50.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.

Measured over 1.4M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.4M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.4M
Best context
58.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
37.6% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.7% at 0-999, 61.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 28.9% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (4,402 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (4,125 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (842 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (127 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (12,557 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (11,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (2,036 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (397 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (33,353 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (31,713 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (4,895 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (67,440 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (88,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (12,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (153 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (113,181 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (201,977 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (30,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (812 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (131,220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (256,779 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (40,992 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (1,179 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (98,102 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (120,817 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (19,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (283 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (48,349 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (22,316 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (2,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (7,094 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (733 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 74.3% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3
50.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack scores 50.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 50.8% — from 1.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack perform best?

The Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (430K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (738K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (114K games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack?

The Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 45.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 169K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 346K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 430K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 239K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 46.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 38.8%, draws 0.5% and loses 60.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.1%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 516K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 738K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 114K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.4%, draws 6.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.0% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.