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Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 50.8%Based on 1.4M games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 50.8%
Outcome Distribution
49.0%3.4%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.f4
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
Analyzen=1.4M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 50.8%), based on 1.4M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~45%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.4% win rate (9,428 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (25,873 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.0% win rate (70,456 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.0% win rate (169,292 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (346,295 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (430,234 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.9% win rate (239,006 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.3% win rate (73,492 games)
  • 2500+: 46.1% win rate (7,882 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (50%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.8% win rate (1,483 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (515,698 games)
  • Blitz: 49.5% win rate (738,069 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (113,956 games)
  • Classical: 50.4% win rate (2,752 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 28.9% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (4,402 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (4,125 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (842 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (127 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (12,557 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (11,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (2,036 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (397 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (33,353 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (31,713 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (4,895 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (67,440 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (88,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (12,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (153 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (113,181 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (201,977 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (30,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (812 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (131,220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (256,779 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (40,992 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (1,179 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (98,102 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (120,817 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (19,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (283 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (48,349 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (22,316 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (2,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (7,094 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (733 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 74.3% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate?

The Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack perform best?

The Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 49.3% win rate for white (430K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (38.8%) by 11.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack?

The Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 169K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 346K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 430K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 239K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.1%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 38.8% (90% CI: 36.7%-40.9%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.1%) win rate for white (516K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.6%) win rate for white (738K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.6%) win rate for white (114K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.0%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.