Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...b6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.1%

45%55%
Floor48.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.2%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
53.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
42.5% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.5% at 0-999, 51.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (7,938 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (13,028 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (3,557 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (23,812 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (32,790 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (7,730 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (92 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (168 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (58,320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (75,999 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (15,237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (294 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (93,821 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (124,025 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (25,311 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (858 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (110,069 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (146,310 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (30,225 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (86,382 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (88,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (19,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (355 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (43,772 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (21,645 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (3,906 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (17,834 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (4,016 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (292 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (200 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 scores 48.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 48.2% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 perform best?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (25K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (507K games) against 46.2% in Rapid (106K games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 150K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 244K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 288K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 195K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 54.7%, draws 1.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 552 Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 444K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 507K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 106K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 50.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.