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Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.1%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%Based on 1.1M games
0%48.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%3.5%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...b6
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.2%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.0% win rate (24,579 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.1% win rate (64,509 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.5% win rate (150,018 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (244,187 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.1% win rate (287,647 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (194,687 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (69,360 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.8% win rate (22,147 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (1,790 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.7% win rate (552 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (443,533 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (506,559 games)
  • Rapid: 43.9% win rate (105,650 games)
  • Classical: 43.1% win rate (2,630 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (7,938 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (13,028 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (3,557 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (23,812 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (32,790 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (7,730 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (92 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (168 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (58,320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (75,999 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (15,237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (294 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (93,821 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (124,025 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (25,311 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (858 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (110,069 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (146,310 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (30,225 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (86,382 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (88,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (19,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (355 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (43,772 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (21,645 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (3,906 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (17,834 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (4,016 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (292 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (200 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 perform best?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (22K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.8%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 150K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 244K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 288K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 195K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 43.8% (90% CI: 40.4%-47.3%) win rate for white (552 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white (444K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white (507K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white (106K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.3%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3 is statistically balanced with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.