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Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.0%

45%55%
Floor51.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.0M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.0M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.0M
Best context
58.3% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Worst context
44.2% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.4% at 0-999, 57.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (16,336 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (17,544 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (5,243 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (43,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (48,509 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (14,625 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (154 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (313 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (85,887 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (105,005 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (30,004 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (582 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (765 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (127,379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (165,786 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (44,413 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (1,664 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (1,442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (163,525 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (190,385 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (48,818 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (2,004 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (1,199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (180,428 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (157,693 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (32,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (367 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (161,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (87,633 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (11,190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (320 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (142,863 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (43,036 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (2,930 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (44,601 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (4,441 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3
50.2%
Continuations (2)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation
49.1%
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
45.9%
Analyze Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation scores 52.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.0% — from 2.0M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (49K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.5% in Blitz (820K games) against 53.2% in Rapid (190K games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 222K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 340K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 406K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 373K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 261K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 189K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 966K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 820K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 190K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.0% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.