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Analyzer

Modern Defense: Geller's System

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.3%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.3%Based on 1.1M games
0%49.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 49.3%
Outcome Distribution
47.2%4.2%48.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c3
Modern Defense: Geller's System
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 49.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 49.3%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.4% win rate (14,032 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.2% win rate (42,607 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (101,873 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (191,299 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (272,163 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (267,313 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (137,228 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.6% win rate (65,464 games)
  • 2500+: 49.9% win rate (15,347 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.7% win rate (1,028 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (462,237 games)
  • Blitz: 47.2% win rate (531,274 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (109,812 games)
  • Classical: 47.8% win rate (2,975 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 18.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (5,951 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (6,488 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (1,565 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (18,762 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (19,565 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (4,210 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (106 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (42,323 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (49,063 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (10,191 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (190 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (250 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (70,714 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (98,991 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (20,639 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (705 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (280 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (92,170 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (145,577 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (33,004 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (1,132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (225 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (98,979 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (138,083 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (29,259 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (767 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (72,640 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (54,900 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (9,518 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (47,884 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (16,137 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (1,372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (12,814 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (2,470 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (54 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Geller's System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate?

The Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Geller's System perform best?

The Modern Defense: Geller's System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Geller's System better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.7%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Geller's System?

The Modern Defense: Geller's System has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 102K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 191K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 272K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 267K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 137K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.2%) win rate for white (462K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.3%) win rate for white (531K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white (110K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Geller's System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Geller's System has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.3%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Modern Defense: Geller's System a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Geller's System is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.