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Modern Defense: Averbakh System

719K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.1%Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.2%Based on 719K games
0%51.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.0% – 51.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.0%4.1%46.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.e4
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
Analyzen=719K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 51.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.0% and 51.2%), based on 719K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.3% win rate (2,197 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (9,330 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.1% win rate (30,258 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.4% win rate (71,672 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.7% win rate (138,717 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.1% win rate (204,059 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.4% win rate (155,863 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.4% win rate (87,731 games)
  • 2500+: 47.8% win rate (19,079 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (52%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.3% win rate (510 games)
  • Bullet: 48.5% win rate (271,670 games)
  • Blitz: 49.2% win rate (385,211 games)
  • Rapid: 50.4% win rate (59,460 games)
  • Classical: 51.5% win rate (2,055 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,265 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (831 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (4,950 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (3,754 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (597 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (80 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (14,413 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (13,642 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (2,095 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (28,792 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (36,465 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (6,052 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (169 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (156 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (46,072 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (77,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (14,408 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (61,642 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (120,209 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (21,279 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (893 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (55,369 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (88,278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (11,870 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (339 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (44,920 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (39,827 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (2,925 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (14,247 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (4,663 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (137 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (32 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack, Bücker Gambit
45.9%
Analyze Modern Defense: Averbakh System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate?

The Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 719K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Averbakh System perform best?

The Modern Defense: Averbakh System performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (156K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (44.3%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System?

The Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 139K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 204K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 156K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 88K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 44.3% (90% CI: 40.7%-47.9%) win rate for white (510 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white (272K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.3%) win rate for white (385K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.8%) win rate for white (59K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.3%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Averbakh System is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.