Modern Defense: Averbakh System
719K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.2%.
Measured over 719K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 719K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 719K
- Best context
- 56.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 48.4% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.7% at 0-999, 56.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,265 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (831 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (97 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (4,950 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (3,754 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (597 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (80 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (14,413 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (13,642 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (2,095 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (194 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (28,792 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (36,465 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (6,052 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (169 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (156 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (46,072 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (77,542 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (14,408 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (539 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (36 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (61,642 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (120,209 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (21,279 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (893 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (55,369 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (88,278 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (11,870 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (339 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (44,920 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (39,827 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (2,925 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (51 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (14,247 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (4,663 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (137 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System scores 51.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 51.2% — from 719K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 719K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Averbakh System, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 719K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Averbakh System perform best?
The Modern Defense: Averbakh System performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (19K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Modern Defense: Averbakh System scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (385K games) against 53.2% in Rapid (59K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System?
The Modern Defense: Averbakh System has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 48.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 139K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 204K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 156K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 88K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 47.8%, draws 8.6% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 44.3%, draws 1.1% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 510 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 272K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 385K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 59K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 51.5%, draws 7.7% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Averbakh System a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Averbakh System is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.0% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.