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Analyzer

Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation

31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.6%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 50.0%Based on 31K games
0%49.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 50.0%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%4.2%48.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...f5
Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation
Analyzen=31K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 49.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 50.0%), based on 31K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (81 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.0% win rate (353 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.8% win rate (999 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (2,809 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.9% win rate (6,552 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.7% win rate (10,127 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.3% win rate (7,548 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.4% win rate (2,515 games)
  • 2500+: 38.8% win rate (183 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (64%), worst in Rapid (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.6% win rate (15 games)
  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (13,387 games)
  • Blitz: 46.8% win rate (15,673 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (2,028 games)
  • Classical: 46.6% win rate (64 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (40 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (204 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (486 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (444 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (1,141 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.1% expected score (177 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,187 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (3,891 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (3,632 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (5,690 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (773 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (3,846 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (3,239 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,715 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (724 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (141 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 31K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 49.0% win rate for white (7.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.2%) outperforms Classical (46.6%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation?

The Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 38.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 353 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 999 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.4%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.3%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.0%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Randspringer Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.