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Modern Defense: Standard Line

1.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 53.8%Based on 1.7M games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%3.6%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nc3
Modern Defense: Standard Line
Analyzen=1.7M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.7% and 53.8%), based on 1.7M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.1% win rate (23,275 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.0% win rate (54,181 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.4% win rate (119,668 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.4% win rate (217,795 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.3% win rate (318,362 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.6% win rate (359,119 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.6% win rate (301,019 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.1% win rate (261,710 games)
  • 2500+: 50.9% win rate (79,558 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in Bullet (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.8% win rate (15,824 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (963,048 games)
  • Blitz: 52.0% win rate (643,189 games)
  • Rapid: 54.0% win rate (109,232 games)
  • Classical: 55.6% win rate (3,394 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.0% expected score (55 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (8,230 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (11,434 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (3,529 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (206 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (22,074 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (25,019 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (6,790 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (92 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (858 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (52,434 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (52,553 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (13,510 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (313 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (3,226 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (98,738 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (94,030 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (21,087 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.5% expected score (714 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (4,979 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (154,181 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (131,672 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (26,469 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (3,283 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (191,139 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (141,071 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (22,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (848 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.4% expected score (2,311 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (184,598 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (102,616 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (11,218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.5% expected score (785 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (185,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (72,245 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (3,609 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (121 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (66,640 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (12,549 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (242 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Standard Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate?

The Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Standard Line perform best?

The Modern Defense: Standard Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (359K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Standard Line better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.8%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Standard Line?

The Modern Defense: Standard Line has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 120K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 218K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 318K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 359K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 301K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 262K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.4%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.7%) win rate for white (963K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.1%) win rate for white (643K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.2%) win rate for white (109K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Standard Line has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.2%-57.0%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Modern Defense: Standard Line a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Standard Line is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.