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Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit

120K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 49.4%Based on 120K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 49.4%
Outcome Distribution
46.7%4.9%48.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit
Analyzen=120K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 49.4%), based on 120K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.4% win rate (1,648 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.6% win rate (2,759 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.0% win rate (4,890 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.9% win rate (8,701 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (12,727 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (18,973 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.6% win rate (27,958 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.9% win rate (29,867 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (12,528 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.4% win rate (1,531 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (75,483 games)
  • Blitz: 45.7% win rate (37,207 games)
  • Rapid: 43.9% win rate (5,545 games)
  • Classical: 35.4% win rate (285 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (375 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (946 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (321 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (935 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,289 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (521 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,012 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (2,189 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (151 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,688 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,921 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (908 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (377 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (6,557 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (4,845 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (925 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 23.5% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (334 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (11,691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (6,252 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (254 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (17,648 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (9,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (833 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (21,647 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (7,244 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (629 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 28.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (100 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (10,930 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (92 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 120K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (2.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.1%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white (75K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.8%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.3%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 48.7%-58.4%) win rate for white (285 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.0%.

Is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.