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Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit

120K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.2%

45%55%
Floor49.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.4%.

Measured over 120K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 120K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
120K
Best context
50.5% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
42.3% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.1%
Draws
4.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.7% at 0-999, 45.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (375 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (946 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (321 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (935 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,289 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (521 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,012 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (2,189 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (151 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,688 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,921 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (908 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (377 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (6,557 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (4,845 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (925 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 23.5% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (334 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (11,691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (6,252 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (254 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (17,648 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (9,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (833 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (21,647 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (7,244 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (629 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 28.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (100 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (10,930 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (92 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 49.4% — from 120K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
120K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 120K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.0% (28K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (37K games) against 46.9% in Rapid (5.5K games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.6%, draws 10.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 75K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.4%, draws 11.0% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 285 Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Mittenberger Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.7% of its games and loses 48.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.