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Analyzer

Modern Defense: Standard Defense

1.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.7%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.8%Based on 1.9M games
0%46.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.8%
Outcome Distribution
44.7%4.0%51.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d6
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
Analyzen=1.9M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 46.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 46.8%), based on 1.9M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.2% win rate (10,241 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.0% win rate (27,347 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.4% win rate (64,185 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.3% win rate (129,166 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.8% win rate (230,581 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.6% win rate (382,914 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.7% win rate (461,253 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (446,543 games)
  • 2500+: 41.9% win rate (128,142 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.4% win rate (3,541 games)
  • Bullet: 45.6% win rate (906,868 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (847,704 games)
  • Rapid: 42.5% win rate (118,082 games)
  • Classical: 39.5% win rate (4,177 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,505 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (5,040 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (1,679 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (42 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (10,914 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (12,351 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (3,996 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (26,200 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (29,312 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (8,345 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (193 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (627 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (51,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (61,472 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (15,110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (91,755 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (112,240 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (24,407 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (1,036 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (800 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (149,592 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (201,037 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (30,173 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (1,312 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (503 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (195,901 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (240,543 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (23,619 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (687 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (241 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (268,491 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (167,465 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (10,175 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (171 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (109,141 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (18,244 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (578 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (141 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nf3
50.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Standard Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate?

The Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Standard Defense perform best?

The Modern Defense: Standard Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (231K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.6%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense?

The Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 64K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 129K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 231K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 383K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 461K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 447K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.0%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate for white (907K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.6%) win rate for white (848K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.9%) win rate for white (118K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.9%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

Is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Standard Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.