Modern Defense: Standard Defense
1.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 1.9M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.9M
- Best context
- 53.0% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 37.8% at 2500+ Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.7% at 0-999, 45.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,505 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (5,040 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (1,679 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (42 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (10,914 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (12,351 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (3,996 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (44 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (135 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (26,200 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (29,312 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (8,345 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (193 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (627 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (51,369 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (61,472 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (15,110 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (588 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (1,143 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (91,755 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (112,240 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (24,407 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (1,036 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (800 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (149,592 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (201,037 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (30,173 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (1,312 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (503 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (195,901 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (240,543 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (23,619 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (687 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (241 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (268,491 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (167,465 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (10,175 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (171 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (109,141 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (18,244 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (578 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (141 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense scores 46.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.7% and 46.8% — from 1.9M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.9M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Standard Defense, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.9M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Standard Defense perform best?
The Modern Defense: Standard Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Standard Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.2% in Blitz (848K games) against 45.0% in Rapid (118K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense?
The Modern Defense: Standard Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 64K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 129K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 231K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 383K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 461K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 447K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.9%, draws 8.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 907K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 848K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 118K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.5%, draws 8.9% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Standard Defense a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Standard Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.7% of its games and loses 51.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.