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Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl

146K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.5%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.7%Based on 146K games
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.7%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%3.8%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl
Analyzen=146K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 51.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 51.7%), based on 146K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.8% win rate (331 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.0% win rate (969 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.5% win rate (2,665 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.3% win rate (6,679 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.5% win rate (13,945 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.8% win rate (26,895 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (39,356 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.8% win rate (42,125 games)
  • 2500+: 47.1% win rate (13,444 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (54%), worst in Rapid (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.5% win rate (976 games)
  • Bullet: 50.4% win rate (96,311 games)
  • Blitz: 48.2% win rate (43,676 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (5,278 games)
  • Classical: 54.0% win rate (168 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (142 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (152 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (471 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (400 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,296 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (240 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (3,058 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (654 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (424 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (6,378 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (5,886 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,226 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (14,215 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (10,999 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,441 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (24,342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (13,733 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,120 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (33,520 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (8,074 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (460 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 37.2% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (12,889 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (527 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 146K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl perform best?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (39K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (50.4%) outperforms Classical (40.4%) by 10.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 45.0% (90% CI: 40.5%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 331 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 969 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.5%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-53.0%) win rate for white (976 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.4%) win rate for white (96K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.8%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 40.4% (90% CI: 34.3%-46.7%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl is statistically balanced with a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.