Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl
146K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.
Measured over 146K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 146K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 146K
- Best context
- 54.9% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.2% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.1% at 0-999, 43.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (142 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (152 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (471 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (400 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,296 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (240 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (148 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (3,058 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,801 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (654 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (424 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (6,378 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (5,886 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,226 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (178 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (14,215 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (10,999 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,441 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (62 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (124 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (24,342 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (13,733 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,120 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (63 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (33,520 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (8,074 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (460 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 37.2% expected score (18 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (12,889 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (527 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl scores 51.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.7% — from 146K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 146K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 146K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl perform best?
The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (6.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.4% in Blitz (44K games) against 49.1% in Rapid (5.3K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl?
The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 52.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 331 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.0%, draws 1.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 969 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.5%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 53.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 976 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 96K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 54.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 168 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.6% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.