Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3
335K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.2%.
Measured over 335K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 335K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 335K
- Best context
- 54.1% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 39.7% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 36.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,578 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,854 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (941 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.0% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (4,579 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (6,078 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,697 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (11,644 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (14,069 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (3,113 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (95 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (96 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (21,412 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (24,756 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (5,316 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (229 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (107 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (33,380 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (35,427 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (6,963 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (237 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.4% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (37,745 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (32,274 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (5,721 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.6% expected score (157 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (30,950 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (17,691 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (1,923 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (23,575 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (6,120 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (311 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (3,527 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (306 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 scores 46.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.9% and 46.2% — from 335K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 335K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 335K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 perform best?
The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.5% (5.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.6% in Blitz (140K games) against 44.4% in Rapid (26K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3?
The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.1%, draws 0.8% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 330 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 168K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 140K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 36.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 789 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.3% of its games and loses 52.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.