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Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3

335K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.0%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.1%Based on 335K games
0%54.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.1%
Outcome Distribution
52.3%3.4%44.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...b6
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3
Analyzen=335K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 54.1%), based on 335K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (5,386 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.2% win rate (12,398 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.2% win rate (28,980 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (51,809 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.7% win rate (76,114 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.9% win rate (75,921 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.6% win rate (50,606 games)
  • 2200-2499: 55.9% win rate (30,022 games)
  • 2500+: 54.0% win rate (3,839 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (58%), worst in Bullet (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.1% win rate (330 games)
  • Bullet: 51.9% win rate (168,390 games)
  • Blitz: 52.5% win rate (139,575 games)
  • Rapid: 53.5% win rate (25,991 games)
  • Classical: 58.0% win rate (789 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,578 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (2,854 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (941 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 28.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (4,579 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (6,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,697 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (11,644 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (14,069 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (3,113 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (96 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (21,412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (24,756 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (5,316 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (33,380 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (35,427 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (6,963 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (37,745 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (32,274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (5,721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (30,950 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (17,691 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (1,923 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (23,575 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (6,120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.4% expected score (311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,527 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (306 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 335K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 perform best?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.9% win rate for white (30K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (54.1%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 54.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-58.6%) win rate for white (330 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white (168K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.7%) win rate for white (140K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.1%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 58.0% (90% CI: 55.1%-60.9%) win rate for white (789 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.