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Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3

335K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.0%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.2%Based on 335K games
0%46.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.3%3.4%52.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...b6
Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3
Analyzen=335K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 46.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 46.2%), based on 335K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.8% win rate (5,386 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (12,398 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (28,980 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (51,809 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.1% win rate (76,114 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.5% win rate (75,921 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.7% win rate (50,606 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.2% win rate (30,022 games)
  • 2500+: 41.0% win rate (3,839 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.1% win rate (330 games)
  • Bullet: 45.3% win rate (168,390 games)
  • Blitz: 43.6% win rate (139,575 games)
  • Rapid: 42.3% win rate (25,991 games)
  • Classical: 36.9% win rate (789 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,578 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,854 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (941 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (4,579 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (6,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,697 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (11,644 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (14,069 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (3,113 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (96 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (21,412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (24,756 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (5,316 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (33,380 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (35,427 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (6,963 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (37,745 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (32,274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (5,721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.6% expected score (157 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (30,950 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (17,691 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (1,923 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (23,575 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (6,120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (3,527 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (306 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 335K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 perform best?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.9% win rate for white (30K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (54.1%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 54.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-58.6%) win rate for white (330 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white (168K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.7%) win rate for white (140K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.1%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 has a 58.0% (90% CI: 55.1%-60.9%) win rate for white (789 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Mongredien Defense, with Nc3 is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.