Modern Defense: Kotov Variation
380K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.2%.
Measured over 380K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 380K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 380K
- Best context
- 53.7% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.5%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (254 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (156 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,304 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (930 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (109 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (3,685 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (3,773 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (456 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (8,680 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (10,382 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,664 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.7% expected score (64 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (17,215 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (25,807 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,728 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (151 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (31,320 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (57,571 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (6,071 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (226 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (39,498 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (67,800 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (5,999 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (125 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (42,118 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (36,309 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,446 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (10,424 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,966 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (61 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation scores 52.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.2% — from 380K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 380K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 380K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation perform best?
The Modern Defense: Kotov Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (95K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.7% in Blitz (205K games) against 49.6% in Rapid (21K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation?
The Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 437 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 95K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 81K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 58.0%, draws 1.9% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 127 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 154K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 205K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 598 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Kotov Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.8% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.