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Analyzer

Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation

117 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score58.9%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 66.2%Based on 117 games
0%58.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 66.2%
Outcome Distribution
57.0%3.8%39.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bxd4
Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation
Analyzen=117
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation has a 58.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 66.2%), based on 117 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 71% → 42%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1400-1599: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1600-1799: 76.5% win rate (7 games)
  • 1800-1999: 33.3% win rate (12 games)
  • 2000-2199: 66.2% win rate (34 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.6% win rate (47 games)
  • 2500+: 41.9% win rate (14 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (59%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 53.8% win rate (31 games)
  • Blitz: 58.8% win rate (81 games)
  • Rapid: 45.5% win rate (4 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399———
1400-1599————
1600-1799———
1800-1999——
2000-2199———
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 66.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation has a 39.2% (90% CI: 32.0%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 117 rated games from Lichess.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation?

The Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

Is the Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Dunworthy Variation is slightly favors black with a 39.2% (90% CI: 32.0%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.