Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
644 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.4%.
Measured over 644 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 1.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 644 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 644
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 98.1%
- Draws
- 1.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 78.6% at 1000-1199, 47.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.7% expected score (30 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (70 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (72 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (99 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (148 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (45 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit scores 53.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.9% and 56.4% — from 644 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 644+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit, Black wins 52.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 644 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit perform best?
The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 63.3% (55 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit?
The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a sharpness score of 98.1 (very decisive), meaning 98.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 54.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 151 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 54.6%, draws 1.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 155 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 194 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 54.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 405 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 217 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 52.1% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.