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Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit

644 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score53.1%Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 56.4%Based on 644 games
0%53.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 56.4%
Outcome Distribution
52.1%1.9%45.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qxb2
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
Analyzen=644
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate1.9%

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 53.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 56.4%), based on 644 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.4% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 82% → 45%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 72.4% win rate (13 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.1% win rate (23 games)
  • 1600-1799: 61.1% win rate (55 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.1% win rate (151 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.6% win rate (155 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.2% win rate (194 games)
  • 2500+: 44.6% win rate (49 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (38%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.2% win rate (405 games)
  • Blitz: 49.2% win rate (217 games)
  • Rapid: 37.8% win rate (21 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (1 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 644 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (194 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.3%) outperforms Bullet (43.9%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a sharpness score of 98.1 (very decisive), meaning 98.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 43.6% (90% CI: 37.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 43.8% (90% CI: 37.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 155 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 48.1%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 39.9%-48.0%) win rate for white (405 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 42.7%-53.8%) win rate for white (217 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.