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Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense

27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.6%

45%55%
Floor48.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.

Measured over 27K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 27K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
27K
Best context
50.6% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
46.3% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.2% at 0-999, 54.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (215 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (472 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (447 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (288 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (790 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,111 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (720 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,008 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,292 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (3,409 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (845 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,354 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (382 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.0% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense scores 48.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 49.1% — from 27K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
27K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 27K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense perform best?

The Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.2% (798 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (15K games) against 49.2% in Rapid (5.8K games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense?

The Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 798 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 756 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 210 Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Neo-Modern Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.6% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.