Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit
9.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
58.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.2%.
Measured over 9.4K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.4K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 9.4K
- Best context
- 64.2% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 55.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 46.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (22 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (87 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (59 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (140 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (195 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (104 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (434 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (99 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (126 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (463 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (322 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 62.1% expected score (202 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 64.2% expected score (1,143 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (218 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (296 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (1,905 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (207 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (549 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (2,199 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (170 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (205 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (186 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit scores 58.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.5% and 59.2% — from 9.4K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 9.4K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit, Black wins 56.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 9.4K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit perform best?
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 63.8% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 58.0% in Blitz (6.6K games) against 60.2% in Rapid (1.1K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit?
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 166 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 54.9%, draws 2.0% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 369 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 638 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 57.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 914 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 62.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 34.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 58.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 54.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 394 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 57.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 56.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 58.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 56.6% of its games and loses 40.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.