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Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit

9.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score58.3%Range (90% confident): 57.5% – 59.2%Based on 9.4K games
0%58.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.5% – 59.2%
Outcome Distribution
56.6%3.4%40.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...d6
Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit
Analyzen=9.4K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 58.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 57.5% and 59.2%), based on 9.4K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +21.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (57 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.4% win rate (166 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.9% win rate (369 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.5% win rate (638 games)
  • 1600-1799: 57.8% win rate (914 games)
  • 1800-1999: 62.4% win rate (1,566 games)
  • 2000-2199: 58.5% win rate (2,409 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.2% win rate (2,919 games)
  • 2500+: 44.6% win rate (394 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (65%), worst in Blitz (56%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 57.3% win rate (1,731 games)
  • Blitz: 56.1% win rate (6,613 games)
  • Rapid: 58.3% win rate (1,078 games)
  • Classical: 65.2% win rate (10 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (87 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (59 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (195 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (434 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (126 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (463 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (322 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 62.1% expected score (202 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 64.2% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (218 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (296 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (1,905 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (207 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (549 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (2,199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (170 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (205 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (186 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 40.0% (90% CI: 39.2%-40.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (394 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (40.2%) outperforms Rapid (37.9%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 37.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 43.0% (90% CI: 38.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 369 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 39.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 638 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 39.6% (90% CI: 37.0%-42.3%) win rate for white, based on 914 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 34.9% (90% CI: 32.9%-36.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 38.1% (90% CI: 36.4%-39.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 41.7% (90% CI: 40.2%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 40.7% (90% CI: 38.7%-42.6%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 40.2% (90% CI: 39.2%-41.2%) win rate for white (6.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 37.9% (90% CI: 35.5%-40.4%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit is slightly favors black with a 40.0% (90% CI: 39.2%-40.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.