9.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 41.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 40.9% and 42.5%), based on 9.4K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~49%)
Best in Bullet (41%), worst in Classical (22%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 40.0% (90% CI: 39.2%-40.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K rated games from Lichess.
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (394 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (40.2%) outperforms Rapid (37.9%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 37.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 43.0% (90% CI: 38.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 369 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 39.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 638 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 39.6% (90% CI: 37.0%-42.3%) win rate for white, based on 914 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 34.9% (90% CI: 32.9%-36.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 38.1% (90% CI: 36.4%-39.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 41.7% (90% CI: 40.2%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 40.7% (90% CI: 38.7%-42.6%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.
In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 40.2% (90% CI: 39.2%-41.2%) win rate for white (6.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit has a 37.9% (90% CI: 35.5%-40.4%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit is slightly favors black with a 40.0% (90% CI: 39.2%-40.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.