Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted
2.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.
Measured over 2.3K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.3K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.3K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.9% at 0-999, 42.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (71 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (124 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (68 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (57 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (209 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (104 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (83 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (405 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (141 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (127 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (353 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (73 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (115 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (165 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 25.7% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted scores 50.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 52.0% — from 2.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted perform best?
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (121 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.8% in Blitz (1.4K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (432 games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted?
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 55.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 121 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 230 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 379 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 637 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 553 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 297 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 502 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.7%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 432 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation Accepted is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.9% of its games and loses 47.3%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.