TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation

1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score55.4%Range (90% confident): 53.4% – 57.4%Based on 1.6K games
0%55.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.4% – 57.4%
Outcome Distribution
52.9%4.8%42.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qa5
Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation
Analyzen=1.6K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 55.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.4% and 57.4%), based on 1.6K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 58%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.2% win rate (71 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.9% win rate (69 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.7% win rate (90 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (132 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.9% win rate (159 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.2% win rate (204 games)
  • 2000-2199: 56.0% win rate (380 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.6% win rate (395 games)
  • 2500+: 58.0% win rate (101 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (69%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 69.2% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 56.5% win rate (573 games)
  • Blitz: 50.6% win rate (901 games)
  • Rapid: 52.4% win rate (114 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (8 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (62 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (80 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (126 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 66.4% expected score (96 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (227 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.8% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.1% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.2%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 45.0% win rate for white (395 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (42.8%) outperforms Rapid (44.6%) by -1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation?

The Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 36.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 36.9%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 38.2% (90% CI: 32.7%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 204 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 38.7% (90% CI: 34.6%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 380 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 40.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 395 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 35.6% (90% CI: 28.0%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 101 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 37.5%-44.2%) win rate for white (573 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 40.1%-45.5%) win rate for white (901 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 37.1%-52.2%) win rate for white (114 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

Is the Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Pterodactyl Variation is slightly favors black with a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.2%-44.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.