Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.
Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 28K
- Best context
- 56.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.4% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.4% at 0-999, 62.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (41 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (73 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (221 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (265 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (64 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (465 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (488 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (122 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (700 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,246 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (209 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,654 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (2,654 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (366 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,132 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (4,274 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (879 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (57 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,514 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (4,059 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (781 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,629 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (1,967 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (219 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (238 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (89 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch scores 51.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.9% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch perform best?
The Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.2% (335 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (15K games) against 51.9% in Rapid (2.7K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch?
The Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 137 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 44.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 550 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 56.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 335 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.7%, draws 8.5% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 110 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.5% of its games and loses 46.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.