2.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 56.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.6% and 58.2%), based on 2.0K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 48%
Best in Bullet (55%), worst in Classical (29%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 43.7% win rate for white (519 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (42.2%) outperforms Rapid (43.2%) by -1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 38.5% (90% CI: 32.2%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 153 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 37.5% (90% CI: 33.1%-42.0%) win rate for white, based on 320 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 40.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 519 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 38.7%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 341 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 40.0% (90% CI: 35.8%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 360 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 39.4%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 140 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 39.0%-45.5%) win rate for white (627 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.
In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 37.9%-42.7%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.
In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 37.7%-48.7%) win rate for white (215 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation is slightly favors black with a 41.3% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.