Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation
2.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.2%.
Measured over 2.0K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.0K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.0K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 66.7% at 0-999, 48.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 67.1% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 64.2% expected score (97 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (23 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (87 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.6% expected score (175 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (55 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (170 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (286 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (61 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (144 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (163 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (33 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (82 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (259 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (81 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (53 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation scores 56.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.6% and 58.2% — from 2.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation, Black wins 54.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 2.0K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation perform best?
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 61.1% (320 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.0% in Blitz (1.1K games) against 54.4% in Rapid (215 games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation?
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 56.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 153 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 59.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.1%. It rests on 320 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 519 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 341 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 52.4%, draws 7.6% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 360 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 47.7%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 140 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 54.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 627 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 54.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 52.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 215 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Polish Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 54.0% of its games and loses 41.3%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.