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Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation

1.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score56.1%Range (90% confident): 54.1% – 58.1%Based on 1.7K games
0%56.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.1% – 58.1%
Outcome Distribution
53.0%6.2%40.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qa5+
Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation
Analyzen=1.7K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 56.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.1% and 58.1%), based on 1.7K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 64% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.9% win rate (29 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.7% win rate (36 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.6% win rate (61 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.0% win rate (128 games)
  • 1600-1799: 59.5% win rate (154 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.6% win rate (197 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.6% win rate (275 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.1% win rate (558 games)
  • 2500+: 37.0% win rate (224 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (55%), worst in Classical (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 51.7% win rate (508 games)
  • Blitz: 54.5% win rate (1,001 games)
  • Rapid: 47.0% win rate (142 games)
  • Classical: 44.0% win rate (11 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 69.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (75 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 70.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (82 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.6% expected score (393 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 38.8%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (224 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (44.7%) outperforms Blitz (38.6%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 33.6%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 128 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 37.6% (90% CI: 31.3%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 39.5% (90% CI: 33.9%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 197 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 35.9%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 275 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 38.0% (90% CI: 34.6%-41.4%) win rate for white, based on 558 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 44.0%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 224 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 13.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 41.0%-48.3%) win rate for white (508 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 38.6% (90% CI: 36.0%-41.1%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 36.1%-49.7%) win rate for white (142 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.

Is the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation is slightly favors black with a 40.8% (90% CI: 38.8%-42.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.