1.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 43.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 41.9% and 45.9%), based on 1.7K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 28% → 49%
Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 38.8%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K rated games from Lichess.
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (224 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (44.7%) outperforms Blitz (38.6%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 33.6%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 128 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 37.6% (90% CI: 31.3%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 39.5% (90% CI: 33.9%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 197 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 35.9%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 275 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 38.0% (90% CI: 34.6%-41.4%) win rate for white, based on 558 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 44.0%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 224 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 13.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 41.0%-48.3%) win rate for white (508 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 38.6% (90% CI: 36.0%-41.1%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.
In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 36.1%-49.7%) win rate for white (142 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.
The Modern Defense: Semi-Averbakh Variation, Pterodactyl Variation is slightly favors black with a 40.8% (90% CI: 38.8%-42.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.