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Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense

351K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.6%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.7%Based on 351K games
0%51.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.7%
Outcome Distribution
49.7%3.7%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nf6
Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense
Analyzen=351K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 51.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 51.7%), based on 351K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.5% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (27,687 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.8% win rate (27,274 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.1% win rate (31,689 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.4% win rate (34,076 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.8% win rate (41,919 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (55,033 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.6% win rate (62,937 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (59,065 games)
  • 2500+: 51.1% win rate (11,716 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (57%), worst in UltraBullet (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.6% win rate (9,444 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (162,176 games)
  • Blitz: 48.9% win rate (142,795 games)
  • Rapid: 52.9% win rate (35,507 games)
  • Classical: 57.1% win rate (1,474 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (6,002 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (8,021 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (247 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (8,457 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (11,274 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (7,007 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (289 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (13,930 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (10,979 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (5,640 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (363 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (2,780 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (15,082 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (11,595 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (4,196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (423 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (3,504 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (19,379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (15,082 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (3,790 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (164 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (25,344 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (25,249 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (2,961 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (395 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (29,701 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (29,914 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (2,896 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (268 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (34,195 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (23,621 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (979 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (10,086 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (1,606 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Continuations (1)
Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit
40.0%
Analyze Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 351K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense perform best?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (27K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.6%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.5%) win rate for white (9.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (162K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.1%) win rate for white (143K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.3%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 55.0%-59.2%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.