Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense
351K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.
Measured over 351K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 351K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 351K
- Best context
- 58.6% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 40.2% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.6% at 0-999, 44.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 72.7% expected score (78 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (6,002 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (13,475 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (8,021 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (111 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (247 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (8,457 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (11,274 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (7,007 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (289 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (777 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (13,930 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (10,979 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (5,640 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (363 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (2,780 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (15,082 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (11,595 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (4,196 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (423 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (3,504 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (19,379 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (15,082 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (3,790 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 28.9% expected score (164 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (1,388 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (25,344 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (25,249 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (2,961 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (91 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (395 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (29,701 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (29,914 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (2,896 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (268 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (34,195 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (23,621 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (979 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (10,086 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (1,606 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.4% and 48.6% — from 351K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 351K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 351K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense perform best?
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (63K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (143K games) against 44.9% in Rapid (36K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense?
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.7%, draws 1.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 162K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 143K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.6% of its games and loses 49.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.