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Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense

351K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 48.6%Based on 351K games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.6%3.7%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nf6
Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense
Analyzen=351K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 48.6%), based on 351K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.5% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.7% win rate (27,687 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.1% win rate (27,274 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.3% win rate (31,689 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (34,076 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (41,919 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (55,033 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (62,937 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (59,065 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (11,716 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.7% win rate (9,444 games)
  • Bullet: 47.3% win rate (162,176 games)
  • Blitz: 46.7% win rate (142,795 games)
  • Rapid: 42.7% win rate (35,507 games)
  • Classical: 38.1% win rate (1,474 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 72.7% expected score (78 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (6,002 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (13,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (8,021 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (247 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (8,457 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (11,274 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (7,007 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (289 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (13,930 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (10,979 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (5,640 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (363 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (2,780 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (15,082 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (11,595 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (4,196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (423 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (3,504 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (19,379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (15,082 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (3,790 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 28.9% expected score (164 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (25,344 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (25,249 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (2,961 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (395 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (29,701 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (29,914 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (2,896 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (268 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (34,195 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (23,621 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (979 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (10,086 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (1,606 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Continuations (1)
Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense, Norwegian Gambit
40.0%
Analyze Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 351K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense perform best?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (27K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.6%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.5%) win rate for white (9.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (162K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.1%) win rate for white (143K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.3%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 55.0%-59.2%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Norwegian Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.