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Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit

7.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.1%

45%55%
Floor50.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.

Measured over 7.6K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.6K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
7.6K
Best context
52.8% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
46.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +3.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.0% · UltraBullet best · Blitz worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.6% at 0-999, 47.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (204 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (133 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (232 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (459 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (378 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (585 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (421 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 69.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,421 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (709 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (870 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (129 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit scores 51.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 52.0% — from 7.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
7.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 7.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 56.1% (334 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (2.3K games) against 54.6% in Rapid (220 games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 42.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 53.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 182 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 55.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 334 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 291 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 493 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 936 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 55.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 192 Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 54.0%, draws 1.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 220 Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Lizard Defense, Pirc-Diemer Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.