Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
46K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.
Measured over 46K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 46K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 46K
- Best context
- 54.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (149 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (62 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (379 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (221 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (820 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (1,452 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (94 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,101 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (4,928 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (380 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (4,424 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (8,965 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (657 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (7,135 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (9,561 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (450 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (3,192 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,056 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation scores 52.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.6% — from 46K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 46K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation, Black wins 49.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 46K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation perform best?
The Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.0% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (26K games) against 51.0% in Rapid (1.6K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation?
The Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 214 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 618 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 50.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.1%, draws 7.8% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.9% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.