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Analyzer

Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation

46K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 48.2%Based on 46K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 48.2%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%4.7%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...f5
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
Analyzen=46K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 47.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 48.2%), based on 46K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.8% win rate (10 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (44 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.1% win rate (214 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.4% win rate (618 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (2,379 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (7,431 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.8% win rate (14,083 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.6% win rate (17,154 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (4,278 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 46.5% win rate (18,243 games)
  • Blitz: 44.7% win rate (26,255 games)
  • Rapid: 45.2% win rate (1,629 games)
  • Classical: 38.7% win rate (80 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (820 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,452 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (94 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (2,101 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (4,928 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (4,424 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (8,965 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (657 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (7,135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (9,561 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (450 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,192 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack, Bücker Gambit
45.9%
Analyze Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 46K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (618 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.5%) outperforms Classical (38.7%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation?

The Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 48.5%-59.6%) win rate for white, based on 214 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 618 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.1%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.1%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.2%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.1%-47.2%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.

Is the Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.