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Modern Defense: Wind Gambit

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.2%Based on 75K games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.2%3.3%49.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Bd3
Modern Defense: Wind Gambit
Analyzen=75K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 48.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 49.2%), based on 75K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -1.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.7% win rate (1,989 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (3,456 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.7% win rate (6,356 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.7% win rate (11,055 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.8% win rate (17,303 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.8% win rate (18,326 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.1% win rate (11,162 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.5% win rate (4,843 games)
  • 2500+: 48.0% win rate (699 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.1% win rate (476 games)
  • Bullet: 47.1% win rate (42,063 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (28,734 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (3,827 games)
  • Classical: 37.0% win rate (89 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (832 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (912 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (236 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,620 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,472 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (79 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (3,169 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,608 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (489 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (146 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (5,386 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (4,748 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (757 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (136 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (9,085 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (7,130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (925 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (9,719 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (7,782 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (757 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (7,358 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,472 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (4,226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (580 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (668 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (30 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Wind Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate?

The Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Wind Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.1% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.6%) outperforms Classical (37.0%) by 10.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 41.7% (90% CI: 39.9%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 699 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 44.3%-51.8%) win rate for white (476 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.1%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.2%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Wind Gambit is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.