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Modern Defense: Wind Gambit

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.9%

45%55%
Floor48.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.

Measured over 75K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 75K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
75K
Best context
52.0% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
43.3% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −1.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.1% at 0-999, 49.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (832 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (912 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (236 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,620 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,472 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (79 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (3,169 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,608 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (489 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (146 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (5,386 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (4,748 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (757 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (136 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (9,085 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (7,130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (925 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (9,719 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (7,782 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (757 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (7,358 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,472 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (4,226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (580 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (668 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (30 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Wind Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit scores 48.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.2% — from 75K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
75K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate?

Playing the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Wind Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.7% in Blitz (29K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (3.8K games).

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Wind Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 41.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.0%, draws 7.4% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 699 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 48.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 476 Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 42K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.

Is the Modern Defense: Wind Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Wind Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.2% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.