Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit
48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
42.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.5%.
Measured over 48K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 48K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 48K
- Best context
- 46.3% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 30.6% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.6% at 0-999, 41.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (1,061 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (3,640 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (1,903 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (1,167 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (2,188 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.6% expected score (1,421 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.7% expected score (64 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (1,659 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (2,360 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.6% expected score (1,083 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.4% expected score (80 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,693 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (3,951 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (1,016 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (97 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,066 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (5,023 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (1,578 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (107 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,809 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (5,269 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (1,435 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (139 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (1,506 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (3,240 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (909 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 20.5% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 37.7% expected score (598 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (407 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (153 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (64 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit scores 42.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.8% and 42.5% — from 48K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 48K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate?
Playing the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit, Black wins 40.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 48K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit perform best?
The Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 44.9% (8.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 43.3% in Blitz (26K games) against 38.5% in Rapid (9.5K games).
How sharp is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit?
The Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 38.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 35.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 61.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.1%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 38.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 59.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 40.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 123 Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 36.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 59.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.5%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.
What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 28.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 65.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.5%. It rests on 541 Lichess games.
Is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit a good opening?
The Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.7% of its games and loses 56.5%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.