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Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit

48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score42.1%Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 42.5%Based on 48K games
0%42.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.8% – 42.5%
Outcome Distribution
40.7%2.9%56.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...f5
Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit
Analyzen=48K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 42.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.8% and 42.5%), based on 48K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -12.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.7% · Classical best · Blitz worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 38% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.4% win rate (6,633 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.6% win rate (4,861 games)
  • 1200-1399: 38.8% win rate (5,198 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.3% win rate (6,791 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.5% win rate (8,800 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.3% win rate (8,663 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.2% win rate (5,692 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.1% win rate (1,161 games)
  • 2500+: 34.6% win rate (78 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (42%), worst in Classical (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.6% win rate (123 games)
  • Bullet: 42.2% win rate (11,623 games)
  • Blitz: 41.7% win rate (26,092 games)
  • Rapid: 36.6% win rate (9,498 games)
  • Classical: 28.8% win rate (541 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (3,640 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (1,903 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (2,188 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.6% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (1,659 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (2,360 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.6% expected score (1,083 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.4% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,693 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (3,951 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (1,016 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,066 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (5,023 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (1,578 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (107 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,809 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (5,269 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (1,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (1,506 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (3,240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 20.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 37.7% expected score (598 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (407 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
50.0%
Modern Defense: Standard Defense
51.3%
Modern Defense: Standard Line
51.9%
Modern Defense: Three Pawns Attack
49.0%
Modern Defense: Geller's System
47.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate?

The Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 56.5% (90% CI: 56.1%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 48K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit perform best?

The Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 61.5% win rate for white (4.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (65.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (57.4%) by 8.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit?

The Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 57.9% (90% CI: 56.9%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 61.5% (90% CI: 60.4%-62.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 58.9% (90% CI: 57.8%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.1%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.9%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 59.3% (90% CI: 56.9%-61.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 57.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-64.6%) win rate for white (123 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.3%-56.8%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.7%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 59.7% (90% CI: 58.9%-60.6%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit has a 65.9% (90% CI: 62.5%-69.2%) win rate for white (541 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Fianchetto Gambit is statistically favors white with a 56.5% (90% CI: 56.1%-56.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.