Pirc Defense
22 variations · 41M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
48.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 41M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #22 of 62
- Games in this context
- 41M
- Best context
- 58.4% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 37.4% at 2500+ Rapid
- Variations measured
- 22
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.6% at 0-999, 41.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.4% expected score (7,312 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (530,233 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (964,424 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (460,353 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (4,298 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (21,281 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,046,347 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,608,214 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (656,533 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (13,430 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (50,777 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,698,693 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (2,390,102 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (938,126 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (32,288 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (72,922 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,288,871 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (3,194,993 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,127,832 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (60,570 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (61,249 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (2,724,340 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (3,592,225 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,146,069 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (54,048 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (41,279 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (2,917,087 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (3,495,416 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (863,606 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (36,116 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (20,585 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,446,193 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,276,509 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (380,974 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (9,136 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (10,735 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,921,628 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (874,668 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (82,749 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (1,148 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (1,028 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (414,611 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (69,706 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.4% expected score (1,784 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (80 games)
22 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Pirc Defense family scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 48.8% — from 41M Lichess games across 22 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 41M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pirc Defense win rate?
Across the Pirc Defense's 22 variations, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 41M rated games from Lichess.
How many Pirc Defense variations are there?
22 Pirc Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Pirc Defense perform best?
The Pirc Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (2.0M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Pirc Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Pirc Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.6% in Blitz (18M games) against 48.6% in Rapid (5.7M games).
How sharp is the Pirc Defense?
Pirc Defense games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Pirc Defense a good opening family?
The Pirc Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.9% and loses 49.3%. Results differ between its 22 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.