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Rat Defense: Spike Attack

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.6%

40%55%
Floor45.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.4%.

Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
12K
Best context
50.9% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Worst context
43.7% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.2% at 0-999, 57.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (395 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,522 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (755 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (703 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (393 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,002 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (552 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 22.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (572 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (833 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (464 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (62 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (562 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (154 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (165 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (299 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 71.1% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Rat Defense: Small Center Defense
50.2%
Rat Defense: Harmonist
51.1%
Rat Defense: Antal Defense
48.5%
Rat Defense: English Rat
47.8%
Rat Defense: Balogh Defense
51.0%
Analyze Rat Defense: Spike Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack scores 46.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.9% and 47.4% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate?

Playing the Rat Defense: Spike Attack, White wins 44.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Rat Defense: Spike Attack perform best?

The Rat Defense: Spike Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.9% (185 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (5.9K games) against 45.7% in Rapid (2.9K games).

How sharp is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack?

The Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 41.6%, draws 6.1% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 44.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 41.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 944 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 506 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 185 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 45.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 45.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 42.6%, draws 6.1% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 42.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 157 Lichess games.

Is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack a good opening?

The Rat Defense: Spike Attack is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 44.4% of its games and loses 51.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.