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Analyzer

Rat Defense: Spike Attack

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.6%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 47.4%Based on 12K games
0%46.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%4.3%51.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.g4
Rat Defense: Spike Attack
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 46.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 47.4%), based on 12K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.6% win rate (2,689 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.6% win rate (2,207 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.5% win rate (2,011 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.2% win rate (1,957 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.1% win rate (1,140 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.7% win rate (944 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.4% win rate (506 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.4% win rate (185 games)
  • 2500+: 47.8% win rate (33 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in UltraBullet (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 29.4% win rate (75 games)
  • Bullet: 45.3% win rate (2,604 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (5,910 games)
  • Rapid: 42.6% win rate (2,926 games)
  • Classical: 42.6% win rate (157 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (395 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,522 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (755 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (703 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (393 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,002 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (552 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 22.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (572 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (833 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (464 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (62 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (562 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (154 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (165 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (299 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 71.1% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Rat Defense: Accelerated Gurgenidze
50.0%
Rat Defense: Antal Defense
48.5%
Rat Defense: Balogh Defense
51.0%
Rat Defense: English Rat
47.8%
Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit
44.5%
Analyze Rat Defense: Spike Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate?

The Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Rat Defense: Spike Attack perform best?

The Rat Defense: Spike Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (185 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (45.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (29.4%) by 15.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack?

The Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 41.6% (90% CI: 40.1%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 44.6% (90% CI: 42.9%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 41.2% (90% CI: 39.4%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 944 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 46.4% (90% CI: 42.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 506 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 53.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 185 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-46.9%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.1%-46.2%) win rate for white (5.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 42.6% (90% CI: 41.1%-44.2%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Rat Defense: Spike Attack has a 42.6% (90% CI: 36.2%-49.1%) win rate for white (157 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Rat Defense: Spike Attack a good opening?

The Rat Defense: Spike Attack is slightly favors black with a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.