Rat Defense: English Rat
987K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.
Measured over 987K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 987K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 987K
- Best context
- 54.2% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.6% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 42.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (172 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (11,764 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (18,661 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (6,459 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (512 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (27,538 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (26,300 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (9,417 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (187 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (1,408 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (43,279 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (31,867 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (10,224 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (379 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (2,693 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (59,269 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (39,847 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (9,529 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (522 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (2,079 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (76,650 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (53,929 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (9,117 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (460 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (490 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (97,503 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (87,915 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (11,048 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (470 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (89 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (91,594 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (91,804 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (9,249 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (243 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (67,358 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (60,093 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (3,673 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (16,805 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,967 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (114 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Rat Defense: English Rat scores 49.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 49.9% — from 987K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 987K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate?
Playing the Rat Defense: English Rat, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 987K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Rat Defense: English Rat perform best?
The Rat Defense: English Rat performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.4% (197K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Rat Defense: English Rat better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Rat Defense: English Rat scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (416K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (69K games).
How sharp is the Rat Defense: English Rat?
The Rat Defense: English Rat has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 64K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 142K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 197K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 193K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.4%, draws 6.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 131K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.5%, draws 8.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.2%, draws 1.3% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 492K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 416K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 69K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.7%, draws 7.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
Is the Rat Defense: English Rat a good opening?
The Rat Defense: English Rat is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.3% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.