Rat Defense
11 variations · 9.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
51.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 9.5M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.5M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — under 500 games here
- Games in this context
- 9.5M
- Best context
- 59.5% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Worst context
- 38.0% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Variations measured
- 11
- Average game length
- 35 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.4% at 0-999, 59.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (1,440 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (90,716 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (160,978 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (59,097 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (514 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (3,459 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (199,099 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (310,105 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (100,424 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (2,076 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (7,331 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (363,087 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (527,280 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (164,135 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (5,824 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (12,962 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (518,578 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (806,705 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (244,511 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (12,848 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (10,852 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (679,448 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,054,475 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (305,354 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (15,558 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (3,246 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (714,330 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,029,072 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (255,039 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (9,115 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (1,411 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (545,967 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (510,807 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (94,849 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (1,379 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (911 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (371,916 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (152,335 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (12,594 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (89 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (90 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (82,690 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (10,801 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (329 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
11 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Rat Defense family scores 51.6% for White — we are 90% confident it is 51.6% — from 9.5M Lichess games across 11 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 9.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Rat Defense win rate?
Across the Rat Defense's 11 variations, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 9.5M rated games from Lichess.
How many Rat Defense variations are there?
11 Rat Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Rat Defense perform best?
The Rat Defense family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.5% (94K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Rat Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Rat Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (4.6M games) against 53.1% in Rapid (1.2M games).
How sharp is the Rat Defense?
Rat Defense games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Rat Defense a good opening family?
The Rat Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, White wins 49.8% and loses 46.6%. Results differ between its 11 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.