Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Rat Defense family has a 51.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 51.6%), aggregated from 11 variations and 9.5M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 49% → 51%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (48%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (1,440 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (90,716 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (160,978 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (59,097 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (514 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (3,459 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (199,099 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (310,105 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (100,424 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (2,076 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (7,331 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (363,087 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (527,280 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (164,135 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (5,824 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (12,962 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (518,578 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (806,705 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (244,511 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (12,848 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (10,852 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (679,448 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,054,475 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (305,354 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (15,558 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (3,246 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (714,330 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,029,072 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (255,039 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (9,115 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (1,411 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (545,967 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (510,807 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (94,849 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (1,379 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (911 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (371,916 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (152,335 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (12,594 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (89 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (90 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (82,690 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (10,801 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (329 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (11)

Rat Defense: Balogh Defense257K games

Winning52.9%

Rat Defense: Harmonist2.0M games

Winning52.7%

Rat Defense: Small Center Defense4.5M games

Balanced52.0%

Rat Defense: Accelerated Gurgenidze191K games

Balanced52.0%

Rat Defense: Fuller Gambit1.2K games

Balanced53.2%

Rat Defense: Antal Defense1.3M games

Balanced50.2%

Rat Defense: English Rat987K games

Balanced50.3%

Rat Defense: Petruccioli Attack20K games

Balanced50.0%

Rat Defense: English Rat, Pounds Gambit9.0K games

Losing48.6%

Rat Defense: Spike Attack12K games

Losing46.6%

Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit214K games

Losing46.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rat Defense win rate?

The Rat Defense family has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 11 variations and 9.5M rated games from Lichess.

How many Rat Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 11 Rat Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Rat Defense perform best?

The Rat Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (94K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Rat Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.9%) by 5.3% across all Rat Defense variations.

How sharp is the Rat Defense?

Rat Defense games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Rat Defense a good opening family?

The Rat Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 11 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.

What Should I Play?

What is the Rat Defense expected score for White?