Rat Defense: Balogh Defense
257K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.2%.
Measured over 257K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 257K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 257K
- Best context
- 50.1% at 0-999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 41.2% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.0% at 0-999, 35.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2,608 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (8,032 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (2,169 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (4,412 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (12,929 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (4,808 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (99 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 64.8% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (6,503 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (16,519 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (6,075 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (341 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.6% expected score (86 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (8,774 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (20,245 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (6,459 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (439 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (166 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (13,021 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (26,957 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (6,296 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (494 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.4% expected score (104 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (17,908 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (36,007 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (5,680 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (364 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.0% expected score (43 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (14,901 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (15,436 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (2,990 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.5% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (10,429 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (3,343 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.6% expected score (430 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (1,464 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (148 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense scores 47.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.9% and 47.2% — from 257K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 257K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate?
Playing the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 257K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense perform best?
The Rat Defense: Balogh Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.1% in Blitz (140K games) against 45.0% in Rapid (35K games).
How sharp is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense?
The Rat Defense: Balogh Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.1%, draws 0.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 510 Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 140K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
Is the Rat Defense: Balogh Defense a good opening?
The Rat Defense: Balogh Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 51.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.