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Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit

214K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.0%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 46.1%Based on 214K games
0%46.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.5%2.9%52.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nc6
Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit
Analyzen=214K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 46.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 46.1%), based on 214K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.1% win rate (1,928 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.2% win rate (6,192 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.8% win rate (14,057 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.4% win rate (26,134 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.4% win rate (44,190 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.2% win rate (61,438 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (42,541 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.5% win rate (15,436 games)
  • 2500+: 51.8% win rate (1,658 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.3% win rate (655 games)
  • Bullet: 44.6% win rate (133,022 games)
  • Blitz: 44.2% win rate (70,686 games)
  • Rapid: 44.5% win rate (9,010 games)
  • Classical: 44.7% win rate (201 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,078 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (696 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (148 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (3,749 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (2,004 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (403 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (72 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (8,626 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (4,484 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (861 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (209 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (15,097 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (9,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,535 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (244 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (25,386 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (16,225 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (2,257 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (34,691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (24,055 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (2,563 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (29,430 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (11,981 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (13,355 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,942 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (134 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,610 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (47 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Rat Defense: Accelerated Gurgenidze
50.0%
Rat Defense: Antal Defense
48.5%
Rat Defense: Balogh Defense
51.0%
Rat Defense: English Rat
47.8%
Rat Defense: English Rat, Pounds Gambit
47.2%
Analyze Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate?

The Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 214K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit perform best?

The Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (44.6%) outperforms Classical (44.7%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit?

The Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 42.3%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.0%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 42.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (655 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-44.9%) win rate for white (133K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.5%) win rate for white (71K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.4%) win rate for white (9.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 39.0%-50.5%) win rate for white (201 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit a good opening?

The Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit is slightly favors black with a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.