Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit
214K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 214K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 214K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 214K
- Best context
- 55.8% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.8% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.7% at 0-999, 40.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,078 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (696 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (148 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.8% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,749 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (2,004 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (403 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (72 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (8,626 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (4,484 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (861 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (209 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (15,097 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (9,252 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (1,535 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (41 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (244 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (25,386 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (16,225 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (2,257 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (78 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (78 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (34,691 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (24,055 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (2,563 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (29,430 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (11,981 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,109 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (13,355 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (1,942 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (134 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,610 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (47 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit scores 54.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.9% and 54.3% — from 214K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 214K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate?
Playing the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 214K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit perform best?
The Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 55.5% (26K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.1% in Blitz (71K games) against 53.3% in Rapid (9.0K games).
How sharp is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit?
The Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 54.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 53.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.7%, draws 1.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 655 Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 133K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 52.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 71K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 51.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 51.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 201 Lichess games.
Is the Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit a good opening?
The Rat Defense: English Rat, Lisbon Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 52.6% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.