Rat Defense: Small Center Defense
4.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 4.5M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.5M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.5M
- Best context
- 64.1% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 36.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.3% at 0-999, 35.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.1% expected score (870 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (53,070 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (100,284 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (39,560 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (384 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (2,198 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (112,774 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (202,044 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (66,853 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (1,468 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (4,228 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (194,945 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (347,860 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (113,788 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (4,195 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (7,229 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (253,915 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (482,156 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (172,062 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (8,885 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (5,110 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (296,294 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (537,704 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (197,522 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (9,583 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (1,450 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (247,549 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (424,148 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (132,298 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (4,829 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (539 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (164,460 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (153,017 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (35,013 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (400 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (279 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (79,700 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (22,728 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (3,035 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 14.1% expected score (18 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (12,933 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (1,598 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (153 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 48.1% — from 4.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate?
Playing the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 4.5M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense perform best?
The Rat Defense: Small Center Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.2% (194K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (2.3M games) against 46.6% in Rapid (760K games).
How sharp is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense?
The Rat Defense: Small Center Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 194K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 385K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 665K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 924K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 810K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 353K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 106K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 7.0% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.3%, draws 1.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 760K Lichess games.
What is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.
Is the Rat Defense: Small Center Defense a good opening?
The Rat Defense: Small Center Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.2% of its games and loses 50.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.