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Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw

479K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.0%Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 50.2%Based on 479K games
0%50.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 50.2%
Outcome Distribution
48.0%4.1%48.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.f3
Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw
Analyzen=479K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 50.2%), based on 479K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.0% win rate (29,001 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.5% win rate (45,701 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.1% win rate (59,202 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (65,767 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (72,935 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (82,784 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (69,717 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.4% win rate (46,026 games)
  • 2500+: 52.0% win rate (7,446 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.7% win rate (1,388 games)
  • Bullet: 48.5% win rate (150,966 games)
  • Blitz: 48.3% win rate (252,549 games)
  • Rapid: 46.0% win rate (70,822 games)
  • Classical: 44.8% win rate (2,854 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (5,113 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,457 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (7,359 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (9,629 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (24,904 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (10,867 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (247 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (190 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (14,285 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (30,407 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (13,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (553 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (495 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (19,260 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (33,433 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (11,772 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (807 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (494 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (24,479 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (37,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (10,238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (552 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (85 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (28,499 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (44,568 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (9,200 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (25,936 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (37,663 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (5,894 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (19,546 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (24,773 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (1,672 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (4,219 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (3,172 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.0% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (4)
Lion Defense: Anti-Philidor
55.3%
Lion Defense: Anti-Philidor, Lion's Cave
49.0%
Lion Defense: Anti-Philidor, Lion's Cave, Lion Claw Gambit
39.8%
Lion Defense: Bayonet Attack
56.6%
Analyze Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate?

The Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 479K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw perform best?

The Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (7.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (51.7%) outperforms Classical (44.8%) by 6.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw?

The Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-53.9%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white (151K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.4%) win rate for white (253K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.3%) win rate for white (71K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.3%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw a good opening?

The Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.