Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw
479K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.2%.
Measured over 479K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 479K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 479K
- Best context
- 56.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.3% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.7% at 0-999, 61.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (5,113 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,457 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (7,359 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (55 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (54 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (9,629 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (24,904 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (10,867 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (247 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (190 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (14,285 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (30,407 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (13,767 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (553 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (495 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (19,260 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (33,433 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (11,772 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (807 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (494 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (24,479 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (37,172 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (10,238 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (552 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (85 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (28,499 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (44,568 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (9,200 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (432 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (39 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (25,936 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (37,663 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (5,894 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (185 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (19,546 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (24,773 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (1,672 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (4,219 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (3,172 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.0% expected score (53 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw scores 50.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.9% and 50.2% — from 479K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 479K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate?
Playing the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 479K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw perform best?
The Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (7.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (253K games) against 48.5% in Rapid (71K games).
How sharp is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw?
The Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 0.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 151K Lichess games.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 253K Lichess games.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 71K Lichess games.
What is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 44.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
Is the Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw a good opening?
The Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.0% of its games and loses 48.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.