What is the Lion Defense expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Lion Defense family has a 50.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 50.9%), aggregated from 5 variations and 677K Lichess games.
Lion Defense
5 variations · 677K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Lion Defense is balanced for White at 50.8% expected score.
This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.
You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.9%Aggregated from 5 variations
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.9%
ContextOverall · n=677K
Outcome Distribution
48.7%4.1%47.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Lion Defense
Variations5
Games (Context)677K
Avg Length35 moves
Draw Rate4.1%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 45% → 53%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 45.1% win rate (29,409 games)
- 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (47,255 games)
- 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (63,407 games)
- 1400-1599: 47.7% win rate (76,679 games)
- 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (98,295 games)
- 1800-1999: 49.0% win rate (126,657 games)
- 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (123,268 games)
- 2200-2499: 50.7% win rate (92,245 games)
- 2500+: 52.9% win rate (20,282 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (47%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 51.6% win rate (1,557 games)
- Bullet: 49.1% win rate (230,916 games)
- Blitz: 48.8% win rate (354,324 games)
- Rapid: 47.3% win rate (87,027 games)
- Classical: 47.2% win rate (3,673 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (5,265 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (16,659 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (7,412 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (55 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.2% expected score (57 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (10,262 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (25,634 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (11,051 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (251 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (200 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (16,149 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (32,257 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (14,235 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (566 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (521 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (23,265 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (39,131 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (12,893 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (869 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (512 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (32,500 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (51,275 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (13,238 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (770 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (40,467 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (71,380 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (13,933 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (732 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (58 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (42,529 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (69,746 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (10,577 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (358 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (45,537 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (43,043 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (3,558 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (68 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (14,942 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (5,199 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (130 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (5)
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Lion Defense win rate?
The Lion Defense family has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 5 variations and 677K rated games from Lichess.
How many Lion Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 5 Lion Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Lion Defense perform best?
The Lion Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (20K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Lion Defense better in blitz or rapid?
UltraBullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (47.2%) by 4.4% across all Lion Defense variations.
How sharp is the Lion Defense?
Lion Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Lion Defense a good opening family?
The Lion Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 5 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.