Lion Defense
5 variations · 677K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.9%.
Measured over 677K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 677K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — under 500 games here
- Games in this context
- 677K
- Best context
- 60.2% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 45.5% at 0-999 Rapid
- Variations measured
- 5
- Average game length
- 35 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.4% at 0-999, 60.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (5,265 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (16,659 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (7,412 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (55 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.2% expected score (57 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (10,262 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (25,634 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (11,051 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (251 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (200 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (16,149 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (32,257 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (14,235 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (566 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (521 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (23,265 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (39,131 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (12,893 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (869 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (512 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (32,500 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (51,275 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (13,238 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (770 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (40,467 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (71,380 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (13,933 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (732 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (58 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (42,529 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (69,746 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (10,577 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (358 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (45,537 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (43,043 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (3,558 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (68 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (14,942 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (5,199 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (130 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
5 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Lion Defense family scores 50.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 50.9% — from 677K Lichess games across 5 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 677K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Lion Defense win rate?
Across the Lion Defense's 5 variations, White wins 48.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 677K rated games from Lichess.
How many Lion Defense variations are there?
5 Lion Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Lion Defense perform best?
The Lion Defense family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (20K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Lion Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Lion Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (354K games) against 49.8% in Rapid (87K games).
How sharp is the Lion Defense?
Lion Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Lion Defense a good opening family?
The Lion Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, White wins 48.7% and loses 47.2%. Results differ between its 5 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.