Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Lion Defense family has a 50.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 50.9%), aggregated from 5 variations and 677K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 53%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (5,265 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (16,659 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (7,412 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (55 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.2% expected score (57 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (10,262 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (25,634 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (11,051 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (251 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (200 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (16,149 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (32,257 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (14,235 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (566 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (521 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (23,265 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (39,131 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (12,893 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (869 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (512 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (32,500 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (51,275 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (13,238 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (770 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (145 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (40,467 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (71,380 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (13,933 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (732 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (58 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (42,529 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (69,746 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (10,577 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (358 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (45,537 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (43,043 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (3,558 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (68 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (14,942 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (5,199 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (130 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (5)

Lion Defense: Bayonet Attack6.6K games

Winning58.7%

Lion Defense: Anti-Philidor41K games

Winning57.0%

Lion Defense: Anti-Philidor, Lion's Cave149K games

Balanced51.3%

Lion Defense: Lion's Jaw479K games

Balanced50.0%

Lion Defense: Anti-Philidor, Lion's Cave, Lion Claw Gambit2.2K games

Losing41.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Lion Defense win rate?

The Lion Defense family has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 5 variations and 677K rated games from Lichess.

How many Lion Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 5 Lion Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Lion Defense perform best?

The Lion Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (20K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Lion Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (47.2%) by 4.4% across all Lion Defense variations.

How sharp is the Lion Defense?

Lion Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Lion Defense a good opening family?

The Lion Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 5 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.

What Should I Play?

What is the Lion Defense expected score for White?