Pirc Defense: Classical Variation
5.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 5.2M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.2M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.2M
- Best context
- 58.4% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.7% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.9% at 0-999, 59.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.6% expected score (158 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (60,714 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (87,876 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (36,564 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (197 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.7% expected score (444 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (146,078 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (201,071 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (80,321 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (975 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (1,014 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (239,585 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (330,569 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (134,705 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (3,207 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (1,977 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (316,563 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (446,366 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (167,547 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (8,129 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (1,789 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (366,474 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (489,923 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (157,626 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (7,352 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (1,554 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (387,283 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (426,642 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (108,341 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (4,374 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (1,253 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (321,454 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (231,986 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (40,753 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (1,024 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (951 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (242,470 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (74,102 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (8,934 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (98 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (97 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (55,897 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (5,958 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (156 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation scores 51.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.4% — from 5.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 5.2M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation perform best?
The Pirc Defense: Classical Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (62K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (2.3M games) against 51.7% in Rapid (735K games).
How sharp is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation?
The Pirc Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 186K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 429K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 709K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 941K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 928K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 596K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 327K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 735K Lichess games.
What is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.
Is the Pirc Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?
The Pirc Defense: Classical Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.2% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.