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Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation

25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

57.5%

45%65%
Floor57.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.0%.

Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
25K
Best context
58.6% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
55.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 36.4% at 0-999, 65.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (84 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (138 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (130 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (312 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (400 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (169 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 79.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (897 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (2,131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (269 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (3,247 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (5,806 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (5,303 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (3,400 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (191 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (1,285 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.0% expected score (323 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Pirc Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Pirc Defense: Classical Variation
49.2%
Pirc Defense: Byrne Variation
52.8%
Pirc Defense: Roscher Gambit
47.1%
Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack
51.7%
Pirc Defense: Classical Variation, Schlechter Variation
50.2%
Analyze Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation scores 57.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.0% and 58.0% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate?

Playing the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation, White wins 55.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation perform best?

The Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.9% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.6% in Blitz (13K games) against 59.3% in Rapid (1.2K games).

How sharp is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation?

The Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.7%, draws 0.5% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 104 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.0%, draws 1.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 257 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 56.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 510 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 57.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 54.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 54.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 56.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 57.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 56.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 54.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 56.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

Is the Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation a good opening?

The Pirc Defense: Chinese Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.7% of its games and loses 40.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.