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Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation

93K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.9%

45%55%
Floor49.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.2%.

Measured over 93K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 93K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
93K
Best context
53.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
42.8% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.9% at 0-999, 49.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (223 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (180 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (516 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (127 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (344 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (2,553 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,444 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (868 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (5,301 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (12,745 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (2,135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (7,288 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (19,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (3,287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (10,173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (14,129 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (1,649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (2,560 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (1,285 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Pirc Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Pirc Defense: Classical Variation
49.2%
Pirc Defense: Byrne Variation
52.8%
Pirc Defense: Roscher Gambit
47.1%
Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack
51.7%
Pirc Defense: Classical Variation, Schlechter Variation
50.2%
Analyze Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation scores 49.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 50.2% — from 93K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
93K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate?

Playing the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation, Black wins 47.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 93K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation perform best?

The Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (20K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (55K games) against 51.3% in Rapid (8.5K games).

How sharp is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation?

The Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 55.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 109 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 459 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.1%, draws 9.6% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.

What is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 42.2%, draws 9.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 462 Lichess games.

Is the Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation a good opening?

The Pirc Defense: Austrian Attack, Dragon Formation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.3% of its games and loses 47.5%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.