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King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit

30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4...Nxc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.2%

45%60%
Floor51.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.

Measured over 30K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 30K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
30K
Best context
56.9% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
48.4% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.2% at 0-999, 34.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (324 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (587 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (193 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (471 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,259 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (320 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (833 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (2,002 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (608 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,099 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (2,673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (921 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (1,443 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (3,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (886 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,742 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (3,914 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (1,401 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,420 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (671 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (272 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.6% expected score (31 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit scores 52.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.8% and 52.7% — from 30K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
30K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit, Black wins 50.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 30K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (4.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (17K games) against 51.4% in Rapid (3.7K games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit?

The King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 306 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Weber Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.3% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.