Caro-Kann Defense

91 variations · 110M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Caro-Kann Defense is balanced for Black at 49.8% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 49.8%Aggregated from 91 variations
0%49.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 49.8%
ContextOverall · n=110M
Outcome Distribution
47.7%4.1%48.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...dxe4
Caro-Kann Defense
Variations91
Games (Context)110M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate4.1%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

Overall, the Caro-Kann Defense family has a 49.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 49.8%), aggregated from 91 variations and 110M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.4% win rate (3,566,412 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.0% win rate (7,392,296 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.0% win rate (12,940,945 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.0% win rate (18,639,504 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (22,345,589 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (21,698,663 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (14,448,409 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.0% win rate (7,866,201 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (1,462,379 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Blitz (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.6% win rate (397,574 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (41,565,427 games)
  • Blitz: 47.3% win rate (52,228,318 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (15,627,656 games)
  • Classical: 47.9% win rate (541,423 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (6,661 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,044,971 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,731,915 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (777,866 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (4,999 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (21,087 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,379,595 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3,538,843 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,429,555 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (23,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (51,063 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (4,217,444 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (6,259,858 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (2,350,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (62,491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (91,557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (5,982,889 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (9,225,427 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (3,204,721 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (134,910 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (102,018 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (7,320,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (11,335,339 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (3,427,612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (160,032 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (72,857 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,898,341 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (10,796,827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,816,122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (114,516 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (36,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (6,589,369 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (6,490,226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,297,212 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (35,167 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (14,339 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (4,940,831 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (2,594,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (311,901 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (5,117 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,191,399 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (255,870 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (12,578 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (975 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (91)

1
Caro-Kann Defense: Labahn Attack28K games
55.9%
2
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack1.6K games
56.9%
3
Caro-Kann Defense: Labahn Attack, Double Gambit1.7K games
56.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation18K games
54.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack6.8M games
53.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line1.1K games
55.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack10.0K games
52.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense4.9M games
52.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation655K games
51.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack39K games
51.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line151K games
51.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation15M games
50.6%
Caro-Kann Defense40M games
50.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense768 games
53.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense129K games
50.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack16K games
51.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation8.7K games
51.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line337K games
50.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense8.6K games
51.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack856K games
50.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation4.0M games
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit319K games
50.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Euwe Attack300K games
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line1.9K games
51.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Gunderam Attack86K games
49.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation3.3M games
49.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit39K games
49.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation6.7M games
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Tartakower Variation1.9M games
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack14K games
49.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit40K games
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation121K games
48.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation2.2M games
48.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System207K games
48.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation524K games
48.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack140K games
48.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System45K games
48.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation241K games
48.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation223K games
48.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense356K games
47.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation151K games
48.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack4.5M games
47.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line236K games
47.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit48K games
47.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack8.1K games
48.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack210K games
47.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation231K games
47.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line1.6M games
47.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit32K games
47.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line487K games
47.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation584K games
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bayonet Attack641K games
47.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack2.4M games
46.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: De Bruycker Defense40K games
47.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack1.7M games
46.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation155K games
46.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line59K games
46.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Labahn Attack, Polish Variation435 games
50.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation1.7M games
46.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Main Line3.2K games
47.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation25K games
46.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Campomanes Attack997K games
45.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Rasa-Studier Gambit310K games
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation498K games
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit190K games
45.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Modern Variation285K games
45.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer740K games
45.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation237K games
44.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line454K games
44.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation115K games
44.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation1.1M games
44.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line10K games
44.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit85K games
44.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation6.0K games
44.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation41K games
44.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Edinburgh Variation4.3K games
44.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Maróczy Attack61K games
43.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation35K games
43.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit5.3K games
43.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit369 games
46.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: von Hennig Gambit274K games
42.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation48K games
41.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense6.0K games
42.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense6.7K games
41.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit249K games
39.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit129K games
38.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Mar��czy Variation203 games
42.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation, Stein Attack327 games
39.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit7.7K games
35.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Attack, Landau Gambit2.2K games
11.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian442 games
12.0%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense family has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, aggregated from 91 variations and 110M rated games from Lichess.

How many Caro-Kann Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 91 Caro-Kann Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (1.5M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.6%) outperforms Classical (46.0%) by 2.6% across all Caro-Kann Defense variations.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense?

Caro-Kann Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense a good opening family?

The Caro-Kann Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.2%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 91 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.