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Caro-Kann Defense

91 variations · 110M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

49.8%

45%55%
Floor49.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 110M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 110M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#9 of 62
Games in this context
110M
Best context
59.6% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
39.1% at 2200-2499 Classical
Variations measured
91
Average game length
34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann LineBest here
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 cxd5 4.c4 Nf6 5.Nc3 Nc6 6.Bg5 Qb6
Floor 52.5% · 1.1K games
55.0%
#2Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.e5 c5
Floor 51.9% · 4.9M games
52.0%
#3Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation
1.e4 c6 2.Nc3 d5 3.Nf3 Bg4
Floor 51.8% · 655K games
51.9%
#4Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 b5
Floor 51.2% · 39K games
51.6%
#5Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line
1.e4 c6 2.Nc3 d5 3.Nf3 Bg4 4.h3 Bh5
Floor 51.1% · 151K games
51.3%
#6Caro-Kann Defense
1.e4 c6
Floor 50.5% · 40M games
50.5%
#7Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 cxd5 4.c4 Nf6 5.Nc3 Nc6 6.Bg5 dxc4 7.d5 Na5
Floor 50.5% · 768 games
53.5%
#8Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 cxd5 4.c4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6
Floor 50.5% · 129K games
50.7%
#9Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line
1.e4 c6 2.Nc3 d5 3.Nf3 Bg4 4.h3 Bxf3
Floor 50.2% · 337K games
50.3%
#10Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.e5 Bf5 4.Nc3 Qb6
Floor 50.2% · 8.6K games
51.1%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.5% at 0-999, 41.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (6,661 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,044,971 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,731,915 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (777,866 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (4,999 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (21,087 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,379,595 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3,538,843 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,429,555 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (23,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (51,063 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (4,217,444 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (6,259,858 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (2,350,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (62,491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (91,557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (5,982,889 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (9,225,427 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (3,204,721 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (134,910 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (102,018 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (7,320,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (11,335,339 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (3,427,612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (160,032 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (72,857 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,898,341 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (10,796,827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,816,122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (114,516 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (36,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (6,589,369 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (6,490,226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,297,212 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (35,167 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (14,339 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (4,940,831 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (2,594,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (311,901 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (5,117 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,191,399 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (255,870 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (12,578 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (975 games)

91 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Caro-Kann Defense: Labahn Attack28K games
55.9%Floor 55.4%
2
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack1.6K games
56.9%Floor 54.8%
3
Caro-Kann Defense: Labahn Attack, Double Gambit1.7K games
56.6%Floor 54.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation18K games
54.5%Floor 53.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack6.8M games
53.6%Floor 53.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line1.1K games
55.0%Floor 52.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack10.0K games
52.8%Floor 52.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense4.9M games
52.0%Floor 51.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation655K games
51.9%Floor 51.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack39K games
51.6%Floor 51.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line151K games
51.3%Floor 51.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation15M games
50.6%Floor 50.6%
Caro-Kann Defense40M games
50.5%Floor 50.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov-Botvinnik, Herzog Defense768 games
53.5%Floor 50.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense129K games
50.7%Floor 50.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack16K games
51.0%Floor 50.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation8.7K games
51.3%Floor 50.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line337K games
50.3%Floor 50.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense8.6K games
51.1%Floor 50.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack856K games
50.2%Floor 50.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation4.0M games
50.0%Floor 50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Ulysses Gambit319K games
50.1%Floor 49.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Euwe Attack300K games
50.0%Floor 49.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line1.9K games
51.7%Floor 49.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Gunderam Attack86K games
49.9%Floor 49.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation3.3M games
49.5%Floor 49.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit39K games
49.7%Floor 49.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation6.7M games
48.9%Floor 48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Tartakower Variation1.9M games
48.9%Floor 48.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack14K games
49.5%Floor 48.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit40K games
49.2%Floor 48.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation121K games
48.8%Floor 48.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation2.2M games
48.6%Floor 48.5%
Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System207K games
48.5%Floor 48.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation524K games
48.4%Floor 48.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack140K games
48.4%Floor 48.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System45K games
48.5%Floor 48.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation241K games
48.2%Floor 48.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation223K games
48.2%Floor 48.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense356K games
47.9%Floor 47.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Spassky Variation151K games
48.0%Floor 47.8%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack4.5M games
47.7%Floor 47.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line236K games
47.7%Floor 47.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit48K games
47.7%Floor 47.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack8.1K games
48.3%Floor 47.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Apocalypse Attack210K games
47.5%Floor 47.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation231K games
47.5%Floor 47.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line1.6M games
47.3%Floor 47.3%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit32K games
47.7%Floor 47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line487K games
47.3%Floor 47.2%
Every Caro-Kann Defense variation, by name91
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense family scores 49.8% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.8% — from 110M Lichess games across 91 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
110M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense win rate?

Across the Caro-Kann Defense's 91 variations, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 110M rated games from Lichess.

How many Caro-Kann Defense variations are there?

91 Caro-Kann Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (3.6M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (52M games) against 49.9% in Rapid (16M games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense?

Caro-Kann Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense a good opening family?

The Caro-Kann Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 47.7% and loses 48.2%. Results differ between its 91 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.