Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation
524K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.5%.
Measured over 524K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 524K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 524K
- Best context
- 54.8% at 1800-1999 Classical
- Worst context
- 42.9% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.3%
- Draws
- 5.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.1% at 0-999, 38.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (715 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,194 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (611 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (1,941 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (2,037 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,224 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (4,745 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (5,446 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (2,214 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (86 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (42 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (10,840 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (14,694 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (4,626 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (376 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (64 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (22,071 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (41,489 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (8,923 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (868 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (87 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (35,751 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (85,338 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (17,788 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (1,219 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (60 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (42,509 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (85,160 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (16,793 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (672 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.5% expected score (19 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (51,113 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (38,533 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (5,529 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (109 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (16,220 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (2,568 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (143 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation scores 48.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.5% — from 524K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 524K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 524K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.5% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (276K games) against 48.3% in Rapid (58K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 140K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 145K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 95K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.3%, draws 7.6% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 292 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 186K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 276K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.5%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 58K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.9%, draws 10.9% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.